| Population aging is a major practical problem that many countries are facing or will face.China officially entered the population aging society in 2000.With the acceleration of the aging process,China has paid more and more attention to the issue of population aging,and it was written into China’s 14 th five year plan as a national strategy in a separate chapter in March 2021.As a common objective phenomenon,the theoretical circle has made many explorations on the economic impact of population aging,but so far it has not formed a unified conclusion.Based on different research periods,research samples and research methods,the conclusions are even quite different.Based on the data of China’s seventh census and the statistical yearbooks over the years,this paper systematically describes and studies the temporal and spatial characteristics and economic growth effects of China’s population aging from 2000 to 2020 by comprehensively using Dagum Gini Coefficient,kernel density estimation method,spatial Markov chain,exploratory spatial data analysis,spatial regression model,panel threshold model and other research methods.The main conclusions are as follows:First,in terms of the current situation of population aging and its temporal and spatial characteristics.(1)China’s population aging has the characteristics of "large base","fast growth","getting old before getting rich","getting old before getting ready" and "large regional differences".(2)In terms of time series evolution,the aging evolution trend of the whole country and the three regions is highly consistent,which can be divided into three stages: "fluctuation rising period","cliff falling period" and "stable rising period";The peak height and wave width of the aging coefficient in the whole country and the eastern region decreased,the western region showed a relatively stable aging upgrading process,and the overall aging process in the central region was greatly affected by the extreme value.(3)In the dimension of spatial evolution,the directionality of China’s population aging coefficient is increasing,and the aging process in the northwest,southwest and northeast is developing relatively rapidly and the aggregation trend is obvious;The spatial distribution of population aging has changed from "high in the East and West and low in the middle" to "East Middle West" and then to "center periphery";The transition between different types of population aging is mainly stable,and the probability of keeping unchanged is at least69.2%;When the regional background is a low-level aging type,the stability of population aging is stronger.When the regional background is a high-level aging type,the possibility of upward transfer of population aging is higher.(4)In the dimension of spatial aggregation,during the study period,the population aging coefficient showed a significant positive spatial autocorrelation,and this positive spatial autocorrelation decreased with the passage of time.From the perspective of local spatial aggregation,the "High-High" aggregation area first appeared in the East,then turned to the west,and finally disappeared;"High-Low" and "Low-High" aggregation areas alternate in the west,but eventually disappear."Low-Low" aggregation areas always exist and only exist in the West.Second,in terms of the spatial effect of population aging on economic growth.(1)The direct economic growth effect and total effect of population aging are positive,and the indirect economic growth effect is negative.(2)According to the degree of influence,from high to low,the total effect(promoting effect)of population aging on economic growth ranks fifth;The direct effect(promoting effect)on economic growth ranks first;The indirect effect(inhibitory effect)on economic growth ranked second.(3)The direct economic growth effect of population aging shows a significant spatial difference pattern of "East > West > Central";The spatial inhibition effect of population aging shows a significant spatial difference pattern of "East > West > Central";The overall economic growth effect of population aging shows a significant spatial difference pattern of "Central > Eastern" and "Western > Eastern",and the difference between central and western regions is not significant.Third,in the nonlinear characteristics of the impact of population aging on economic growth.(1)The population aging in the whole country,central and western regions has a significant "inverted U-shaped" impact on economic growth,and its corresponding inflection points appear near 18.22%,13.74% and 15.83% respectively.(2)Taking the proportion of social security and employment expenditure in financial expenditure as the threshold variable,three different sample groups in the whole country,the East and the West have passed the significance test of the threshold value.Among them,the whole country and the West have one threshold value,which are 7.39% and8.23% respectively;The eastern region has two thresholds,which are 6.41% and 17.63%respectively;There is no threshold in the central region.After crossing the threshold,the economic growth effect of population aging has been further improved in the whole country,the East and the West.Based on the above conclusions,in order to better deal with the impact of population aging on economic growth,this paper puts forward the following suggestions: First,make full ideological and material preparations and actively deal with population aging;Second,actively encourage fertility and increase the inclusiveness of Fertility Policies;Third,optimize the structure of special fiscal expenditure in the central region;Fourth,accelerate the construction of a multi-level social security system;Fifth,vigorously develop pension finance. |
PDF Full Text Request