The Spatial And Temporal Evolution And The Effect On Economic Growth Of The Population Aging In Anhui Province

In the 21 st century,the population of the world is entering into the high-speed aging period.Also,China has officially become an aging society in 2000.As one of the six eastern provinces of less developed,Anhui became one of the aging societies in 1998.Earlier than other provinces in eastern,also two years earlier than the national.Its population aging also exists the fact that the space is unbalanced when compared with other regions.At time goes on,the growing population aging has seriously affected the sustainable and healthy growth of Anhui economy.Therefore,the research of this paper is particularly important.The paper analyses the spatial and temporal evolution of the population aging in Anhui by ArcGIS and GeoDa from two dimensions of time and space.And using BP neural network to predict the future population aging trend.Then put the population aging factor and child population factor into the standard Solow model to construct an new extended Solow model.So as to analysis the impact of population aging on economic growth theoretically.On the basis of theoretical analysis,the paper use Anhui's data of 1999 to 2014 to verify the result.It also uses the models of Dubin and GWR to make quantitative measure.The results show:Firstly,the population aging is increasing year by year,and there is also a basic fact of non-equilibrium in space.On the whole,aging shows a gradual increase from southeast to northwest.Among them,the most cities of higher population aging are located in the south and very few in the middle.Secondly,the population aging in Anhui overall showed positive correlation in space.As a result,most cities fall into the first and third quadrants to form high or low value value areas.Thirdly,predictive result is shown that whether in Anhui province or the 16 cities,the population aging is on the rise and the degree continues to be serious in 2016-2020.Secondly,the impact of population aging on economic growth has both positive and negative effects.At the beginning of the population aging,it can promote economic growth.But with the deepening of aging degree,the negative effects will be more and more obvious.Also,the theoretical analysis shows that when the pension level reaches the critical value,the population aging does not have any effect on economic growth.Thirdly,its actual pension level exceeded the critical one since 2006.That is to say,the population aging has a negative impact on the economic growth.Then,the results of theoretical analysis are the same as the results of the quantitative analysis: when the natural of the Anhui's elderly population increases 1%,the GDP of Anhui province will decrease 3.13%.The quantitative analysis of other cities in Anhui of economic growth shows that the population aging of different cities with different elderly population has a negative impact on each cities' economic growth.Finally,on the basis of summarizing the research results of the paper,how to deal with the population aging and alleviate these negative effect? We should try our best to put forward some suggestions,such as promoting of "Active Population Aging" ?developing of labor resources?developing aging industries?adjusting family planning policy timely.