| The Nineteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly proposed the in-depth implementation of the regional coordinated development strategy to ensure the security of border areas,consolidate and accelerate the development of these areas.The northeast border region is an important part of the Belt and Road Initiatives strategy.Since the 16 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to revitalize the old industrial bases in the northeast China,the northeast border region has witnessed a significant economic growth through taking advantage of the driving force of this policy,its own resources and regional advantages.However,after experiencing the financial crisis and the new normal of economic development,the "new Northeast phenomenon" has emerged with the sharp decline in economic growth rate and brain drain in the northeast border region.The spatial distribution of population and economy is closely related to regional differences.The problem of sustainable population and economic development in the region and the coordinated development of the two have become the main issues restricting the development of the northeast border area,which is related to the long-term security and prosperity of the entire northeast region and even the whole country.Therefore,this paper takes 31 county-level areas in the three provinces of Northeast China(including county-level cities,counties,and municipal districts)as the research geographic unit.Combining data from 2003 to 2017,and selecting three time sections of 2003,2010,and 2017,this paper uses population,economic growth rate,population-economic growth elasticity,geographical concentration,relative migration index,and mismatch index to study the evolution of population and economic spatiotemporal development and the coordination of spatiotemporal distribution in the northeast border counties.Based on the analysis of economic and population coordination,this paper takes the mismatch index as the dependent variable,and uses the 11 influencing factors such as socioeconomic background,infrastructure development level,and political environment factors as independent variables to establish a panel data regression model,conducts a quantitative analysis of the factors of the mismatch between the economy and the population,and draws conclusions,and finally puts forward corresponding development suggestions based on the particularities of the border areas and their respective developments.This thesis is divided into six chapters:The first chapter is an introduction.Firstly,the research background,purpose,and research significance of the paper are clarified.Secondly,it introduces the relevant concepts and theoretical basis of the paper,and systematically sorts out the literature about the research on the correlation between population and economy and the research on border areas at home and abroad.Finally,the research content and corresponding technical route of the paper are determined.The second chapter introduces the regional overview of the border areas of the three northeastern provinces,establishes the research methods and the data sources of the research.First of all,the regional development status is introduced in detail from the perspective of the study area,the study area natural conditions,socio-economic conditions,and policy conditions.Following that,it sort outs the research methods and data sources.The third chapter analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution and evolution characteristics of population and economy in the border counties of the three northeastern provinces.Firstly,it probes into the evolution characteristics of the population and economic scale of the counties in the northeast border.Secondly,it analyzes the evolution characteristics of the population and economic spatial distribution in the northeastern border counties.The fourth chapter mainly analyzes the situation of the coordinated development of population and economy in the northeast border counties.Firstly,it analyzes the coordinated relationship between the increase in population and economic growth,Secondly,the coordination relationship between population and economic spatial distribution is studied.The fifth chapter focuses on analyzing the factors that affect the mismatch between population and economic spatial distribution.Firstly,this paper selects the influencing factors from the aspects of market,government,geographical environment,etc.Secondly,it uses panel data regression model to analyze the influencing factors.Finally,in combination with the analysis,the corresponding optimization directions and strategies are proposed.The sixth chapter is the conclusion and outlook,Firstly,it summarizes the main content of the paper.Secondly,it analyzes the innovations and deficiencies in the research.Finally,the research outlook is proposed.The results showed that:(1)From 2003 to 2017,the population of counties in the northeast border declined continuously.The economic aggregate and GDP per capita kept growing.The population growth rate and the economic growth rate have shown a continuous decline and an upward trend followed by a downward trend.The gap between population and economy in the region has increased.(2)During the study period,The spatial distribution of population and economy both showed a gradual decrease in the geographical concentration level of "border counties in Liaoning Province-border counties in Jilin Province-border counties in Heilongjiang Province".However,the economic distribution has obvious high economic points throughout the border counties.(3)With time,the population agglomeration capacity of the counties in the northeast border has not changed remarkably.The economic agglomeration capacity in the northern county has declined in contrast to the increase in the southern county.The population and economic agglomeration capacity of the counties in the northeast border are poor,and the population and economy of most regions are in relative emigration.The gap in population and economic spatial distribution within the region has widened.(4)The economic growth of the counties in the northeastern border areas has a weak driving effect on population growth.The number of counties which experience the uncoordinated population and economy development has increased.In terms of the situation about the coordinated development of population-economic space,it presents that the border area of Liaoning Province and Jilin Province is better than Heilongjiang Province.The number of counties in the northern border area where population and economic development are not coordinated is significantly larger than that in the south border area and shows an increasing development trend.Regarding the coordinated development of counties: border-port counties are better than forest-mining counties than agricultural counties.The economic polarization zone has a strong economic radiation effect on the peripheral areas.(5)The overall population imbalance in the northeastern border counties has increased,and the economic imbalance has decreased from 2003.The overall imbalance between population and economic distribution has weakened,but regional differences characterized by the imbalance between population and economy still exist.(6)Overall,while the local development strength and infrastructure level continue to exert influence on the coordinated development of population and economic space,the influence of geopolitics and external factors has weakened.Therefore,the adjustment of industrial structure,the increase in infrastructure construction such as ports and transportation in border areas,and appropriate policy support are of great significance for promoting the coordinated development of population and economy in border areas. |
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