Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On The Development Of China’s Service Trade

China has a large population base and a constantly improving medical service system.The problem of aging and having fewer children is becoming increasingly severe,and the proportion of working-age population is constantly decreasing.How to achieve long-term balanced development of the population structure is a major issue related to the survival and prosperity of the Chinese nation.Population and economy are closely linked.Although China’s service trade developed rapidly due to the demographic dividend in the early stage,its overall level is still relatively backward,and the deficit of service trade is still expanding,which even caused the imbalance of China’s service trade structure.In this practical context,it is of great practical significance to address the issue of population aging,transform the disadvantages of population structure into advantages,promote the high-quality development of China’s service trade,and improve the international competitiveness of China’s service trade.At present,most scholars in the field of service trade research use transnational data for research.Few scholars use China’s provincial panel data to explore the impact of population aging on China’s service trade development,which makes the existing research results have some limitations.Therefore,this article uses PLS-SEM analysis method to empirically analyze the import and export data of service trade in 30 provinces of China from 2010 to 2020,exploring the impact of population aging on the development of service trade in China.Firstly,this article defines the relevant concepts of population aging and service trade by reviewing research literature.Secondly,from the perspective of demand side and supply side linkage,explore the impact mechanism of population aging on the development of China’s service trade,and propose research hypotheses based on this.Then,a structural equation model was constructed using the import and export data of service trade from 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2020,and empirical research was conducted.The following conclusions were drawn:(1)The aging population has a significant positive impact on the development of service trade in China.(2)The aging population has a significant positive impact on China’s supply side level.This is because the positive impact of the increase in human capital outweighs the negative impact of rising labor costs,and the expansion of the proportion of high net worth individuals requires the service industry to provide higher quality products and services.(3)The aging population has a significant positive impact on the demand side level in China.The reason is that as the physical function of the elderly population decreases,they will put forward higher quality requirements for physiological needs,safety needs,and emotional needs,which will have a significant direct positive impact on the demand side level.(4)Due to the increase in labor costs and the decrease in social consumption levels,the supply side level has a significant negative impact on the development of China’s service trade.(5)The demand side level has a significant negative impact on the development of China’s service trade.The income level of elderly behavioral individuals will decrease compared to their youth.According to the overlapping demand theory,a decrease in income level will hinder the development of China’s service trade by affecting the consumption demand structure.Finally,based on the above conclusions,this article proposes relevant countermeasures and suggestions.