The Study On The Impact Of Demographic Transition On China’s High-quality Economic Development

Since the reform and opening-up in 1987,China’s economy has achieved ultra-fast growth and its GDP will exceed 100 trillion yuan by 2020,equivalent to 75% of the GDP of the United States.Among the many factors contributing to the economic development,the demographic factor is one of the major driving forces that cannot be ignored.Although there are disputes over the calculation results,there is no denying that population is one of the important factors supporting China’s economic development.However,with the transformation of China’s population structure,there are great differences among scholars on whether the demographic dividend,which once supported China’s rapid economic development,still exists.Since 2017,when China’s economy entered a new stage of high-quality development,high-quality development has become the main theme of economic development.At several meetings,the CPC Central Committee stressed the need to firmly implement the new development concept and achieve all-round economic and social development in the future.Therefore,it is very necessary to discuss the impact of demographic transition on China’s high-quality economic development under the background of new requirements of economic development.Based on the combination of population quantity structure and population quality structure,this paper discusses the impact of population structure transition on China’s high-quality economic development from both theoretical and empirical aspects.Firstly,this paper sorts out the existing research on population structure and high-quality economic development.On this basis,the connotation and function mechanism of population structure and high-quality economic development are described,and then the current status and timely characteristics of China’s population structure transformation are described through the statistical summary of census data over the years.Finally,provincial panel data from 2010 to 2019,guided by the concept of five development ideas to build index system,using the method of entropy to measure 30 provinces and autonomous regions in our country economic development level of high quality,and to clarify population structure from the perspective of quality and quantity of double action mechanism of the impact of high quality and economic development and put forward the research hypothesis,based on this,Using fixed effect model,spatial Durbin model and mediating effect test to explore the impact of demographic transition on China’s highquality economic development.The research shows that in terms of high-quality economic development,from the perspective of time evolution,the overall high-quality economic development of China shows a steady upward trend,but there are structural differences,coordination has a high contribution to high-quality economic development,and innovation development is lagging behind to become the weak board of high-quality economic development.From the perspective of spatial evolution,the high-quality economic development of China presents the spatial distribution characteristics of eastern > northeastern > central > western regions,and the variation trend of regional differences shows the trend of decreasing east-west differences and widening northsouth differences year by year.In terms of spatial characteristics,the high-quality economic development of China’s provinces has obvious spatial correlation.The high-quality economic development of China’s eastern coastal areas shows a high value of aggregation,and gradually diffuses from the east to the middle,but the diffusion effect is weak.In terms of the impact of population structure on high-quality economic development,the number of population structure still plays a role in promoting high-quality economic development,but it shows a declining trend year by year.The population quality structure promotes the high-quality economic development by scientific and technological innovation and replaces the population quantity structure as an important support for the high-quality economic development in China.There are spatial differences and spatial spillovers in the impact of population structure on highquality economic development.Finally,the following six suggestions are put forward according to the research conclusions: relying on population quality structure to promote economic structure transformation;Further release the demographic dividend by upgrading the industrial structure;Strengthening the cultivation of skilled and applied talents in the process of the transformation of population quality structure;Establish perfect work system and medical security system to guarantee the transformation of population quality structure;Relying on education to promote the transformation of population quality structure in minority areas;We will improve the birth policy system and provide policy guarantee for optimizing the population structure.