A Study On The Impact Of Migration On Intergenerational Income Mobility

Since the reform and opening-up,China’s economy has achieved long-term,rapid and steady growth,with a nearly 60-fold increase in its gross domestic product.However,the gap between the rich and the poor in China has been widening.In the 1980 s,China’s Gini coefficient was around 0.3;in the mid-’90s it reached 0.42;in 2010 it rose above 0.48,broke through the International Gini Line.The issue of income inequality not only affects the people’s share of national development achievements,but also concerns the social stability of our country.At present,China is in the stage of moving from pursuing high-speed growth to pursuing highquality development.We should avoid falling into the "Middle Income Trap" and strive to move forward to high-income countries through sustainable and healthy high-quality development.With the development of urbanization,more and more labor forces migrate from countryside to town.The National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China said that 249 million people,or 66.29 percent of the country’s total floating population,will move from rural to urban areas by 2020,we should study income inequality from the perspective of mobility,and discuss it separately by dividing the population into three groups: Migration Group,urban non-migration group and rural non-migration group.Studying and analyzing the current situation of intergenerational mobility elasticity in China and understanding the influence of labor migration on intergenerational income mobility are of great practical significance for reducing income gap,formulating fair and reasonable income distribution policy and maintaining social stability.Using the data of China household tracking survey(CFPS)in 2018,this paper first improves the model of intergenerational mobility,the intergenerational income mobility elasticity of residents with different income groups was calculated and analyzed by using quantile regression and multiple linear regression methods,and intergenerational income mobility elasticity of migrating and non-migrating groups(including urban non-migrating and rural non-migrating);secondly,constructing environmental set and effort set according to the dualistic analysis framework of environment and effort,a two-value Probit migration regression model was established to verify the effect of migration on intergenerational mobility and sample regression was performed according to current household registration Finally,LPM linear probability regression is used to decompose the conduction process of migration to intergenerational flows,and the contribution of migration through conduction variables to intergenerational flows is calculated.The conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)in 2018,from the perspective of different income groups,the intergenerational mobility coefficient of China as a whole showed a trend of high at both ends and low in the middle;The coefficient of intergenerational income mobility of the highest quartile group was 0.3668,and the coefficient of intergenerational income mobility of the lowest quartile group was 0.4341,which was much higher than the middle quartile group,it shows that the intergenerational mobility of the high-income group and the low-income group is still closed,the degree of solidification is serious,and the intergenerational mobility of the middle-income group is strong.(2)in 2018,the intergenerational income mobility of the total migrating population was 0.1926,the intergenerational income mobility coefficient of the urban non-migrating population was 0.2915,and the intergenerational income mobility coefficient of the rural non-migrating population was 0.3659,the intergenerational mobility of the migrating group is significantly higher than that of the non-migrating group,and the intergenerational income elasticity of the rural non-migrating group is higher than that of the urban non-migrating group.(3)individual migration has a significant positive effect on intergenerational income mobility.By trying to focus on the variables of education and working hours per day,the contribution of migration to intergenerational income mobility was 41 per cent,the contribution of access to and trust in environmentally focused work to intergenerational income flows was 8 per cent.After grouping the urban and rural areas,the migration coefficient is 0.056 for urban and 0.070 for rural areas,indicating that the migration has a greater impact on the agricultural population.In view of the results of this study,we put forward the following four recommendations:(1)to increase investment in education,rational allocation of educational resources.(2)to break down barriers in the labor market,improve the household registration system,and continuously relax the policy of household registration.(3)to take further appropriate measures to expand the proportion of middle-income groups so that our social distribution structure will form an olive-shaped shape with a middle size at both ends(4)and to continue to promote the integration of urban and rural development;Innovation Urban and rural management system,as far as possible to make urban factors gradually flow to the countryside,narrow the gap between urban and rural areas.