The Impact Of Population Change Of RCEP Member Countries On Regional Agricultural Trade

RCEP countries have significant differences in resource endowments such as population,land,and geographical conditions,and the trade of agricultural products between them is highly complementary.However,the agricultural trade of RCEP member countries is unstable and fluctuates greatly,partly due to the demographic changes in each country.Based on this,based on the literature review,this article describes the characteristics of population changes and the status quo of agricultural trade in RCEP member countries based on the theory of population economics,and empirically analyzes the impact of population changes in RCEP member countries on agricultural trade.This article is divided into five chapters.The first chapter is the introduction.It introduces the background and significance of the selected topic of the thesis,conducts a literature review of related research,determines the research content and methods of the article,and summarizes the innovations and deficiencies of this article;The second chapter introduces the demographic changes of RCEP member countries and the status quo of agricultural trade;the third part first analyzes the impact of the RCEP member’s age structure,gender structure,and demographic changes on regional agricultural trade.Chapter 3 also estimates the complementarity index of the agricultural trade of RCEP member countries;Chapter 4 introduces the population change variable into the traditional gravity trade model,and estimates the impact of population change on the agricultural trade of RCEP member countries under the premise of controlling other variables;Based on the previous research,Chapter gives policy recommendations for expanding agricultural trade among RCEP member countries,and puts forward prospects for future research.The following is the research conclusion of this article.The female population of exporting country i(N_i,f)significantly positively affects the export volume of agricultural products,indicating that women play an important role in agricultural trade in the RCEP region.The female population of importing country j(N_j,f)will increase by 1%,and the import value of agricultural products will increase by 1.05%.The proportion of female working-age population in exporting country i(λ_i,f)is directly proportional to the export volume of agricultural products in the RCEP region,and the proportion of female working-age population in importing country j(λ_j,f)and the import of agricultural products in the RCEP region There is no significant correlation between the amounts.The monthly income difference between men and women（uⁱ）significantly reduces the export value of agricultural products in the RCEP region.On the whole,the wages paid to female workers by enterprises in exporting country i are lower than the wages paid to male workers,which is not conducive to the export of agricultural products in the RCEP region.The monthly income difference between men and women in importing country j（u^j）also reduces the import volume of agricultural products in the RCEP region.Due to gender discrimination,this will lead to the overall female enthusiasm is not very high,so it will lead to a decline in the export of agricultural products in the RCEP region.The shortcomings of this article are because the author is an international student,and his Chinese ability cannot reach the level of quickly reading Chinese materials,which leads to insufficient collection of documents and some irregularities in written expression.Secondly,because RCEP has just been established,the population and agricultural trade data of each member country are still relatively small,and the sample size for empirical analysis is not large.I hope that with the formal establishment of RCEP in the future,the impact of population changes in RCEP member countries on regional agricultural trade will be further analyzed by analyzing more agricultural trade data and population data.