The Relationship Between Demographic Structure And Trade Structure

China has got a huge success from reform and open in the past 30 years. The amount of import and export increased from 38.14 billion to 4160 billion dollars in 2013 which was the first one in the world. The structure of international trade has been transforming from labor-intensive industry to capital-intensive industry, at the same time, the ratio of the industrial product has been becoming more and more. The export products of Chinese trade structure has been changing from low added value products to middle added value products. By now, Chinese high-tech products export had increased a lot, but it’s still a small part. China has got great development in economy and international trade. In the meantime Chinese demographic structure had changed a lot. The fertility rate and human mortality had changed numerous. The change of Chinese demographic structure would influence the supply of labor, and affect the resource endowment, and then affect factor abundance, at last change the structure of trade. We analyze the effect on the changing of demographic structure which will influence trade structure by using a panel dataset consist of different provinces in China from 2000 to 2010. Because of the differences between the provinces, we use fixed effect model. The result shows that the change of demographic structure has a significant effect on trade structure; the working age population ratio and factor endowment also have a significant effect on trade structure, the development of the economic and some other elements have a significant effect too. Judging from theoretical research and empirical research, demographic structure has a significant effect on the structure of trade. Export may benefit from high labor population ratio in these years. But, the increasing of capital may lead to the change of the essential productive factor which would impact the export of the labor intensive product. To upgrade the structure of trade and improve the competitive strength of high-tech industry, capital element should raise a lot. Our research shows that high level of capital factor abundance has a significant positive effect on the structure of trade. Under the circumstance that the huge change of demographic structure, the structure of trade has endogenous motive force to upgrade.