A Study On The Evolution Routine Of Chinese Population Age Structure And Its Provincial Patterns

As the growth rate of the total population in China and the world slows down,more attention will be paid to population age structure.The triangular diagram routine provides a time-continuous and endogenously correlated overall analysis tool for population age structure.This paper applies the triangular diagram to the study of Chinese population age structure,verifies the relationship between the endogenous variables of Chinese population age structure and the proportion of labor force,summarizes the regional model of the evolution routine of Chinese population age structure,explores the relationship between the routine of population age structure and population migration.This study finds that the evolutionary routine of population age structure in Chinese provinces has a strong direction consistency and also has significant regional differences.According to the evolutionary routine of population age structure and geographical location characteristics of Chinese provinces,eight regional patterns can be summarized,which are: the North-East Pattern,the Eastern Municipality Pattern,the Eastern Coastal Pattern,the Southern Coastal Pattern,the South-West Pattern,the Central Pattern,the North-West Ethnic Minority Pattern and the North China Inland Pattern.In each pattern,the shape,direction and stage of the evolution routine of the population age structure in each province are basically the same.Using the closed simulation routine(based on the closed simulation of the population age structure routine of Chinese provinces under the condition of natural population changes from 2000 to 2020)to compare with the evolution routine of the age structure of Chinese provinces(according to the results of national population census in corresponding years),and combine with the current situation of population migration of Chinese provinces,Chinese provinces can be divided into three types:“Labor Inflow” type,“Labor Outflow” type and “Net migration Stabilizing” type These three types can correspond to the different positional relationships between the evolution routine of the actual population age structure and the movement routine of the closed simulated age structure in the triangular diagram.To some extent,population migration affects the evolution routine of population age structure and the size of "Turing Point Bonus" in provinces with “Labor Inflow” type and “Labor Outflow” type.Large-scale population migration significantly delays the arrival time of "Bonus Turning Point" in Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai.