| Our country’s economic development is at a critical juncture of growth and shifting,and the industrial structure is also in the throes of transformation and adjustment.At present,it’s the key to achieve curve overtaking in our country that is the upgrading of industrial structure.With the advent of the era of economic knowledge,a person of ability as a kind of capital has become the theme of the times,and its impact on the upgrading of industrial structure can not be ignored.Therefore,in depth,this thesis studies the impact of human capital accumulation on the upgrading of industrial structure.Firstly,starting from the relevant literature,this thesis sorts out the methods of measuring human capital accumulation,its impact on the economy and the industrial structure upgrading.Meanwhile,this thesis expounds the relationship between the human capital accumulation and industrial structure upgrading.And based on previous research,the concept of human capital accumulation and industrial structure improvement has been defined,and the influence path of human capital accumulation on industrial structure improvement and factors affecting the improvement of industrial structure were explored,which laid the foundation for empirical analysis.Secondly,the panel data of 30 provinces and cities from 1999 to 2019 were collected by this thesis.Creatively,the index of industrial structure upgrading is divided into three levels,it constructs variables,which are the index of industrial structure rationalization,industrial structure hierarchy and industrial structure advanced and others.After passing the data stationarity test,a mediating effect model is established with innovation level and labor productivity as mediating variables.From a national perspective,taking innovation and labor productivity as an intermediary,the influence of human capital accumulation on the rationalization index of industrial structure is concluded by the masking effect,and it is concluded by the mediating effect in the influence of human capital accumulation on the advanced industrial structure.Likewise,human capital accumulation can influence industrial structure hierarchies through innovation.From a area point of view,when the innovation is used as the mediating variable,in the eastern and central area of our country,the accumulation of human capital can use the level of innovation as the mediator to influence the upgrading of the industrial structure,while the mediating effect in the western region only exists in the influence of the accumulation of human capital on the advanced industrial structure.And human capital accumulation and innovation levels have more impact on industrial structure structural structures in eastern region,which compared with the central and western regions.When labor productivity is used as the mediating variable,there is no mediating effect between human capital accumulation and the rationalization of industrial structure in the eastern area of our country,and the improvement of human capital accumulation has the least impact on labor productivity in the eastern region.Finally,this paper incorporates spatial factors into the model,compares and analyzes three spatial model,and through the LM test,it is concluded that the model with the industrial structure hierarchy index and the industrial structure advanced index as the explained variables has spatial autocorrelation at the 1% significance level,the model with the industrial structure rationalization index as the explained variable only has spatial autocorrelation at the 10% significance level.Then,through LR test and Wald test,it is concluded that the fitting effect of the spatial Doberman model is better.According to the regression results of the model,it is more suitable to fit the ordinary panel model with the industrial structure rationalization index as the explained variable,and the spatial Dubin model is more suitable to fit the industrial structure hierarchy index and the industrial structure advanced index as the explained variables.At the same time,it is concluded that improving the level of human capital accumulation can promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure,and the spatial coefficients are all significantly positive,that is to say,the changes in the industrial structure of the region have promoted the stratification of the industrial structure and the advanced industrial structure in the surrounding areas.Based on the above conclusions,the following suggestions are made: first,speed up the pace of education system reform,and focus on the improvement of human capital accumulation;second,enlarge investment in education and improve the level of human capital accumulation;third,use the advanced to drive the backward,and multiple provinces and cities will make progress together;fourth,explore the development path according to local conditions and realize the stepped layout of the industrial structure;fifth,actively explore the advantages behind the aging population and tap the potential of the elderly population. |
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