Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On Industrial Structure Upgrading

Undergoing the transition from high-speed growth to high-quality growth,China's economic development is in a critical period.The resource-consuming industrial production mode,characterized by extensive development,is difficult to continue.The high-quality development of economic growth is of great practical significance.At the same time,the population structure is becoming more and more aging.According to the Statistical Bulletin of the National Economic and Social Development 2018,China's population over the age of 60 has exceeded the population of 0-15,accounting for 17.9%,and the proportion of population over 65 has reached 11.4%.The aging of the population means the aging of the population structure and the reduction of the labor force.Scholars have explored the impact of industrial structure upgrade from multiple perspectives,but there are fewer discussions in the context of population aging,and there is a lack of in-depth research from the perspective of labor supply.Explore.Therefore,this research is based on the background of population aging,explores the path of industrial structure upgrade in the face of labor aging and shortage,and studies the coping mechanism from the perspective of human capital and government intervention.Firstly,this article defines the concepts of population aging and industrial structure upgrade.By summarizing domestic and international literature reviews,it is found that the research on the impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrade is more abundant,while the research on the impact of industrial structure upgrade is less.The economic and social impact of population aging is mainly concentrated in four aspects: labor supply,consumption,savings and government burden.Combined with the theme of this study,we selected the influence path of population aging-labor supply-industrial structure upgrade,and planned to analyze and analyze the response mechanism from the perspective of human capital and government intervention.Therefore,the theoretical analysis mainly introduces the demographic transition theory,industrial structure upgrade theory,human capital theory and government behavior theory.In the current situation analysis part,the current situation of population aging in the region is analyzed with the aid of population aging rate,birth rate,mortality rate,and migration rate.Explore the evolution of population aging and industrial structure upgrades.With the disappearance of the “demographic dividend”,enterprise production is faced with the problems of reduced labor supply and increased labor costs.Therefore,from the perspective of human capital and government intervention,the corresponding indicators are selected to test the level of human capital effect and policy effect.On the basis of qualitative analysis of the relationship between population aging and industrial structure upgrade,and panel unit root test,a comprehensive use of panel OLS model and system GMM model for regression analysis,and with the help of intermediary effect and moderation effect model,respectively,human capital investment,government intervention mechanism test.The purpose of this study is to describe the current status and socioeconomic impact of population aging,analyze its impact level and path to industrial structure upgrade,and use data and empirical tests to test the impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrade and whether there is a labor supply intermediary transmission mechanism.At the same time,it explores the effectiveness of the labor compensation mechanism from the perspective of human capital and government intervention,and combines theoretical and empirical findings to provide feasible suggestions for the effective development of the “human capital effect” and “policy effect” of industrial structure upgrading in the context of population aging.The structure of this paper mainly includes six parts: introduction,literature review,theoretical analysis of population and industrial structure upgrade,analysis of the current situation of population aging and industrial structure upgrade,empirical tests,conclusions,and policy recommendations.After analysis of the status quo,theoretical derivation,and empirical tests,the following conclusions are reached: the aging of the population has a significant positive impact on the upgrading of the industrial structure.Among the control variables,except for urbanization,the industrial structure is lagging behind by one stage,the industrial structure is upgraded,and foreign direct Both investment and foreign trade have a significant positive impact on the upgrading of the industrial structure,and have passed the robustness test.Based on the establishment of the labor supply intermediary transmission mechanism,the labor compensation mechanism was analyzed with the help of the intermediary effect and the regulation effect.The results show that: human capital investment helps promote the upgrading of the industrial structure under the background of population aging,and government intervention on population aging The upgrading of the industrial structure has a significant regulatory effect.Finally,the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward based on the research conclusions.