The Selection And Empirical Test Of The Influencing Factors Of Chinese Residents’ Fertility Willingness

The latest population data shows that China’s population size has experienced negative growth for the first time.In order to alleviate the faster decline trend of fertility,China has introduced and adjusted various fertility policies to stimulate fertility decision-making.At the same time,many scholars have gradually focused their research on the causes of the impact of fertility desire from the micro perspective.There are many influencing factors of fertility intention confirmed by research,but at present,scholars have obvious subjective randomness in the selection of variables.Therefore,starting from the selection of factors affecting fertility intention,this paper selects the random forest model and XGBoost model,uses the characteristic importance index to screen out the important variables affecting fertility intention,and uses appropriate statistical model to analyze the specific impact of these factors.The result of variable selection shows that demographic characteristics(gender,age,education level),happiness,family income and expenditure,population size,employment,welfare and other factors at the individual level are important variables that affect fertility intention,and have passed the test of relevant literature.It is worth noting that the concept of "less but better" has become the focus of influencing fertility intention.In addition,individual reading habits,social relations,social cognition and identity also have potential impact on fertility intention.The study found that women’s fertility desire is generally lower than that of men,and the impact of age,education level and income level is more prominent.Education level and reading habits have inhibitory effects on fertility desire,but women in the population with low education level show stronger fertility desire than men.In terms of fertility concepts,a lack of preference for boys and the expectation of "promising children" will promote the generation of fertility intentions,while "inheritance" and "taking care of children to prevent aging" are no longer the mainstream fertility concepts that promote fertility intentions.The impact of family level is mainly manifested as the positive impact of family human capital on fertility intention;Pension and old-age security also have a crowding-out effect on fertility willingness.The influence of three children’s fertility intention is more significant by income level and happiness.The following suggestions are put forward for relevant policies: to cultivate a positive attitude towards fertility;Build a childbearing friendly social environment;Establish a fertility incentive system.