Analysis Of The Measurements And Influencing Factors Of Economic Resilience Of Local Cities In China

In the modernization process of Chinese,the city occupies an important part,which is the engine to promote economic development and achieve common prosperity.In recent years,the economic environment has become more risky,and the world is experiencing the biggest change in a century.Economic globalization has made the world economy more and more closely connected,but also put higher demands on the stability and risk resistance of economies.In addition,China is indeed facing many systemic risks during the transition period.On the one hand,it is difficult to transform and upgrade traditional enterprises,on the other hand,the ultra-conventional stabilization policy has gradually withdrawn from the historical stage,and the exogenous thrust of economic growth is weak.In the context of intertwined structural risks and short-term shocks,can Chinese cities better cope with and resolve various shocks? As an important part of the Chinese modernization proposed by China’s 20 th National Congress,studying economic resilience from a prefecture-level city will provide ideas for cities to promote economic resilience and provide a new perspective to solve the problem of unstable Regional Development.In this study,firstly,the relevant domestic and foreign literature is reviewed and summarized,and the concept of economic resilience and the main economic theories are analyzed in detail.Secondly,281 prefecture-level cities are taken as the research objects,and the counterfactual method is chosen to measure them.An estimation model is constructed based on the dynamic relationship between unit employment and actual output from 2006 to 2020,and the ratio of calculated expected unit employment without external shocks to actual employment is defined as economic resilience.Subsequently,the measurement results are visually analyzed,and the mean and growth rate of provincial capital cities are selected and discussed with the six economic zones of North China,Northeast China,East China,South Central China,Southwest China and Northwest China.Then,using the Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition results,the overall differences of the sample are decomposed into three parts: within-group differences,inter-group net differences and inter-group intensity of trans-variation,and the various types of differences in the economic resilience of the six economic belts are measured,using kernel density estimation to present dynamic changes.Finally,another measure of economic toughness is constructed using the actual output level to ensure the robustness of the statistical model,and the analysis of benchmark panel model,panel quantile model,and spatial panel model are conducted respectively,and ten indicators are selected from three aspects of economic base,government policy,and educational level to interpret the influencing factors,and the robustness and heterogeneity tests are done by changing the spatial matrix and other methods.The main findings of this study are:(1)The overall economic resilience of local cities is good and stable.The overall mean value of economic resilience in local cities has been greater than 1 over the past 15 years.The cities with the highest economic resilience are the provincial capitals and traditional economic powerhouses of each province.From 2006 to 2020,the average value of economic resilience of each city shows an obvious "core-edge" characteristic,showing a trend of gradual increase from west to east.(2)The development of resilience among cities is uneven and the degree is gradually deepening.From the national level,the overall Gini coefficient of China’s economic resilience is relatively high,with an average value of 0.2890 in the sample period,and has been maintaining an upward growth trend,indicating that there is a relatively obvious imbalance between China’s urban economic resilience,and that the imbalances are showing a deepening trend.(3)Industrial structure has a positive spillover effect.Urban economic resilience has positive spatial correlation,and regions with higher economic resilience can produce positive spillover to neighboring regions and improve these regions’ economic resilience.Because of the frequent mutual exchange and learning of capital,technology and other factors in neighboring regions,the improvement of the quantity or quality of factors in neighboring regions can also lead to the change of quantity and quality of local factors through the "trickle-down effect",and the positive spillover effect of industrial structure in neighboring regions on regional economic resilience can promote the growth of regional economic resilience.Based on the above findings,this paper puts forward policy recommendations such as ensuring a stable economic environment to build a foundation for economic resilience;bringing into play regional linkages to drive resilient development;and developing industries in accordance with local conditions to enhance economic resilience.