Research On The Optimal Distribution Of New Urban Labor Force In Henan Province From The Perspective Of Economy And Water Resources

As China’s total population gradually reaches its peak,most areas are bound to face various problems caused by the reduction of labor force in the future.As the direct participation and main contribution factor of the regional economic development,the change of the scale of the labor force will have a direct and long-term impact on the regional economic development pattern.As a province with a large population and labor force in China,the birth population of Henan Province has been decreasing since2016,the total resident population showed negative growth for the first time in 2022,and the size of the working-age labor force has decreased by millions compared with 2005.However,the level of economic development in Henan Province does not have a comparative advantage compared with areas with equally rich labor resources,such as Guangdong,Jiangsu and Zhejiang.With the passage of time,various problems caused by the reduction of labor force may become more prominent in Henan Province.therefore,the research on the optimization of urban labor force layout in Henan Province has important theoretical and practical significance.The paper is divided into four main parts from the perspective of economy and water resources:(1)the optimal increase scale of urban labor force under the benefits of regional economic growth;(2)The moderate population size that regional water resources can carry;(3)Optimal distribution plan for newly added urban labor force when economic growth benefits are maximized;(4)Constraints of water resources on economic optimization distribution plans.The full text adopts a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods,and the following conclusions are drawn:Firstly,there is an inverted "U" relationship between the scale of new urban labor force and the benefits of economic growth in Henan Province.In all the urban areas of Henan Province,the ranking of economic volume is in the middle,and the annual increase of urban labor force has been negatively correlated with the growth of per capita GDP.Secondly,the larger the economy,the more new urban labor force can be accommodated every year.Zhengzhou,Luoyang and Nanyang,which have a large economy,can accommodate more new urban labor force every year than other urban areas.The urban areas with economic volume in the central region can no longer increase the per capita GDP by increasing the size of urban labor force.Luohe,Hebi and Jiyuan,which have smaller economic volume,still have less space for urban labor force scale growth every year.Thirdly,the concentration of most of the new urban labor force to Zhengzhou,Luoyang and Nanyang is conducive to the overall economic growth of the region,but we need to pay attention to the constraints of water resources.Making most of the newly added urban labor force flow to the three regional centers of Zhengzhou,Luoyang and Nanyang can ensure the maximization of the benefits of regional economic growth as a whole,but when using this scheme for the migration of urban labor force,Zhengzhou and Luoyang will break through the maximum appropriate population size that can be carried by the current red line of water resources in 2024 and 2026 respectively,if we want to maximize the benefits of per capita economic growth in the region as a whole.It is necessary to improve the red line index of water resources in Zhengzhou and Luoyang and increase the amount of water available in the two areas.Fourth,the mismatch between the level of regional economic development and water resources will become increasingly prominent.Subject to the constraints of water resources,large-scale population mobility will make the level of economic development and the mismatch of water resources in various regions of Henan Province become more serious.for example,Luohe and other places where the population may continue to decline in the future will still have a large amount of water resources available,while places with higher levels of economic development such as Zhengzhou and Luoyang will have to face the problem of water shortage.Fifth,the problems caused by the reduction of the size of the labor force may be the first to break out in rural areas.In the low-middle scenario,the resident population of Henan Province reached its peak in 2022.With the decline of resident population and the increase of urban labor force,the scale of rural labor force is bound to decrease.Therefore,it is necessary to pay attention to the problems caused by the shortage of rural labor force,such as the waste of cultivated land,the soaring price of agricultural products and so on.This paper provides a new research path for "related research on regional labor force layout optimization",which makes the relationship between theoretical research and practical operation more closely,and provides theoretical reference for relevant policy-making.it enriches the research achievements of labor force economics and population geography in the optimization of labor force layout.