Research On The Influence Of China's Population Structure Change On Housing Demand

The real estate industry in China has been developing rapidly,since the housing system reform in 1998.From 2005 to 2014,The housing sales area with average annual growth of 11.21%,and the housing price grew by an average of 10.2% a year.What causes the housing demand growth over house prices? As the ultimate consumer of the real estate market,in the long run,The change of the population policy in our country will directly or indirectly affect the residents' housing demand through changing the population structure.Population in China has gradually entered the era of low birth rate,low mortality rate and low natural growth rate,we called it "three lows" era,since the implementation of family planning policy.Population aging speed and decline in the number of working-age population,the two major trends in the short term is difficult to reverse.In order to slow down the deceleration of China's demographic dividend,Our country began to implement the "separate two children" policy at the end of 2013,and carry out two child policy in October 2015.In this environment,Study the effect of population structure on the demand for housing has great economic significance.This paper tries to combine China's demographic characteristics,study the influence of China's population structure change on housing demand.Analysis of the influence of population policy on the real estate market.First,this paper scientific summarizes the relevant theories of population structure and the demand for housing,and the transmission mechanism of population structure affect the demand for housing.Secondly,detailed description of the current situation of China's population structure and the demand for housing.Finally,this paper uses the panel data of 30 provinces of our country from 1998 to 2015.The empirical results show that the children's dependency ratio and the demand for housing has remarkable negative correlation relationship,old-age dependency ratio has significant positive correlation to the demand of housing.Both of them have obvious regional differences influence on the demand of the housing.In the central area,children's dependency ratio and has a positive influence on housing demand.In eastern and western regions,elderly dependency ratio on the demand for housing is greater than the impact on the central region.Family size has a significant negative effect on demand for housing,and the urbanization rate has a significant positive effect on the demand of housing.The effect degree of family size and the urbanization rate on the central part of the demand of housing is larger than the eastern and western areas of China.The natural population structure and social geography structure impact on housing demand balance each other will be good for the smooth and orderly development of the real estate market,promote stability in the real estate financial market.Finally,according to the empirical conclusions,this paper puts forward to the development of China's population and the real estate market targeted suggestions.