Research On Fruit Cold Chain Logistics Demand In Jiangsu Province Based On Gray-regression Model

In recent years,with the continuous growth of people’s economic income level,the consumption demand of residents for fruits has shown an increasing trend.The cold chain logistics that can ensure the quality of fruits has been paid more and more attention by consumers.Cold chain logistics has become an indispensable part of fruit quality assurance and its core competitiveness,which requires the cold chain logistics industry to achieve high-quality development.Jiangsu has superior natural environment,rich fruit resources and high output.The development potential of fruit cold chain logistics market is huge.The advance prediction of fruit cold chain logistics demand in Jiangsu Province is the basis of cold chain logistics planning.This paper forecasts the demand of fruit cold chain logistics in Jiangsu Province,which has obvious theoretical and practical significance for the development of fruit cold chain logistics industry.First of all,the existing research results at home and abroad are deeply studied,and the fruit cold chain logistics demand is systematically analyzed according to the development status of fruit cold chain logistics,so as to determine the influencing factors that play an important role in the demand of fruit cold chain logistics and construct the index system.Secondly,the influencing factors are set as the independent variable,and the fruit cold chain logistics demand is set as the dependent variable.The gray correlation analysis of independent variables and dependent variables using MATLAB2021 a software.After calculating the gray correlation coefficient between each independent variable and the fruit cold chain logistics demand,it is sorted.The higher the coefficient,the higher the correlation between the influencing factor and the fruit cold chain logistics demand,that is,it has a great impact on the change trend of the dependent variable.According to the ranking order of gray correlation coefficient,the factors with high correlation coefficient are selected as the key influencing factors.Then to analyze the selected key influencing factors by multiple regression analysis by SPSS21 software,and establish multiple linear regression equations based on the analysis results.The gray prediction is used to predict the independent variable,and the predicted value of the independent variable from 2020 to2024 is substituted into the regression equation to obtain the predicted value of fruit cold chain logistics demand in Jiangsu Province from 2020 to 2024.The prediction results show that the fruit cold chain logistics demand in Jiangsu Province shows an upward trend.Eventually,this paper presents the following suggestions based on the above trends:(1)improve consumers’ awareness of cold chain;(2)increase capital investment in infrastructure;(3)strengthen the R&D and application of new technologies;(4)build an information-based cold chain logistics system;(5)improve the regulatory system for the cold chain industry.