Research On The Spatiotemporal Evolution And Influencing Factors Of Multifunctional Agriculture In Jiangsu Province

In the process of agricultural modernization development,due to the diversification of economic and social demands for agriculture,the functions of agriculture need to be continuously expanded and innovated.Research on the multifunctionality of agriculture has become one of the important paths for the transformation and upgrading of agricultural development in China.This study selects Jiangsu Province as a typical case study,based on the construction of an agricultural multifunctional indicator system.Starting from multiple scales such as region,city,and county,it combines entropy weighted TOPSIS method,ESDA model,Spearman rank correlation coefficient method,and geographic detector model to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of agricultural multifunctional in Jiangsu Province.The results show:(1)Characteristics of spatiotemporal evolution:On a regional scale,from 1978 to 2019,the functions of grain production and economic development showed an overall trend of increasing in northern Jiangsu,slightly decreasing in central Jiangsu,and decreasing in southern Jiangsu.The social security and ecological conservation functions showed a trend of slightly increasing or decreasing in stable Jiangsu,with a relatively small range of changes.At the city level,cities with higher levels of grain production function development are gradually shifting from south to north,and spatially,they are mainly concentrated in areas such as Yancheng City and Huai’an City,which have abundant arable land resources;Cities with higher levels of economic development functions have shown a trend of transfer from cities along the southeast to cities in northern Jiangsu,and have formed a circular distribution of"southern Jiangsu-eastern coastal-northern Jiangsu" during the research period;The spatiotemporal pattern of cities with well-developed social security functions remains basically unchanged,mainly distributed in economically developed areas such as Suzhou and Wuxi;Cities with well-developed ecological conservation functions exhibit a trend of transfer from cities along the western route to cities along the southern route,and exhibit a distribution characteristic from point dispersion to block aggregation.At the county level,the overall grain production function shows a trend of "decreasing from the south to the north",with well-developed counties clustered in blocks in northern Jiangsu areas such as Yancheng and Xuzhou,and scattered in some central Jiangsu areas in dots;The counties with better economic development and social security functions exhibit a pattern of " strong in the south and weak in the northt",mainly clustered in blocks in the economically developed southern Jiangsu region;The level of ecological conservation function follows a pattern of mountainous and hilly areas>municipal districts>plain areas,with counties in mountainous and hilly areas and densely populated water networks developing better.(2)A spatial agglomeration analysis at the county level found that from 1978 to 2019,the Moran,sI index values of agricultural and grain production,economic development,social security,and ecological conservation functions in Jiangsu Province were all greater than zero,indicating a spatial positive autocorrelation of agricultural multifunctions in Jiangsu Province.The LISA diagram further proves that High High High agglomeration and Low Low Low agglomeration areas dominate.(3)From 1978 to 2019,there was a spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the synergistic trade-off relationship between various functions of agriculture in Jiangsu counties.The function of grain production and economic development showed a positive correlation in 1978,1990,and 2005,showing a strong synergistic relationship,but a negative correlation in 2019,showing a trade-off relationship;The grain production and social security functions showed a trend of first synergy and then balance from 1978 to 2019;There is a strong balance between grain production and ecological conservation functions;There is a synergistic relationship between economic development and social security functions in all four years,but the degree of synergy continues to decrease over time;The economic development and ecological conservation function showed a strong equilibrium relationship in 1978,1990,and 2005,but showed a synergistic relationship in 2019;Social security and ecological conservation functions did not pass the correlation test from 1978 to 2019,indicating a relatively small degree of correlation.(4)The multifunctional development of agriculture in Jiangsu Province is influenced by multiple factors such as nature,population,and socio-economic development.The regional economic development level and population employment structure are the dominant factors for the spatial differentiation of agricultural functions;The industrial structure and people’s living conditions are important driving forces for the spatial differentiation of agricultural functions;The natural environment and population density are fundamental factors for the spatial differentiation of agricultural functions.(5)The spatial distribution of counties dominated by different agricultural functions has obvious regularity.The counties with strong comprehensive functions are mainly distributed in the northern region of Jiangsu and Taixing and Qidong cities in central Jiangsu;The counties with dominant grain production functions are mainly scattered in the northern and central regions of Jiangsu in a dotted pattern;The counties with dominant economic development functions are mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas and Xuzhou City in the northwest;The dominant counties with social security functions are mainly concentrated in the southern regions of Su,Xi,and Chang in southern Jiangsu;The leading counties with ecological conservation functions are mainly concentrated in the hilly area of Ningzhen Town and the counties and cities along the lake,such as Luoma Lake and Hongze Lake;Weak comprehensive functional counties are mainly distributed in the municipal districts of various cities,as well as some counties such as Nanjing and Zhenjiang.