| At present,the research of land use simulation mainly focuses on the spatial scale,but less on the temporal scale.However,the development and evolution of land use contains a lot of historical information,especially the construction land,which has the characteristics of rapid development and strong trend.The construction land generated in different years has different impacts on the future land use change trend.Therefore,in order to pursue higher accuracy of land use simulation,some scholars began to pay attention to the driving force of historical information on land use,but all described historical information from the perspective of urban expansion trend.Taking Songyuan City as an example,this paper selects the perspective of correlation between historical construction land and current construction land to quantitatively describe historical information.In order to quantitatively describe the score of historical information,STLEI index and STAWMEI index are proposed;When historical information is included in the FLUS model,the Fo M value is 1.93% higher than before,and the Kappa index is 2.45% higher than before.Historical information has an obvious driving role in land use change;After incorporating the historical information,the construction land in the land use simulation results will be more concentrated in the central urban area and other centralized construction areas.Then,the FLUS model,combined with the Markov chain model and the anti-planning concept,was used to simulate the land use change in 2025,and the future land use change trend was distracted from the ecological service value,spatial autocorrelation and other aspects.The results show that:(1)After adding the driving force of historical information,the new construction land is more concentrated around the construction land generated in recent years.The more concentrated the construction land is,the greater the difference between the simulation of historical information and the simulation of historical information.However,in the most developed central urban area of the city,it is difficult to build a large area of new land because the urban land has become saturated,and there is almost no difference between the simulation of historical information and the simulation of historical information.(2)After the historical information is included in the land use simulation,more construction land will be added around the centralized built-up area.This difference is mainly concentrated within the range of 500 m from the central urban area and within the range of 500m-1500 m,with little difference.(3)The areas with high density of construction land generated by the simulation of historical information driving factors are more concentrated in the county and city centers,and the density of construction land generated by the simulation of other areas is generally low,while there are also areas with high density of construction land generated by the simulation of construction land generated without historical information driving factors except in the county and city centers.(4)In the land use simulation of Songyuan City in 2025,the forest land and grassland in Songyuan City are shifting to the west;In terms of construction land,the expansion trend of the centralized built-up area is obvious.The increase of construction land is mainly concentrated in the period from 2013 to 2019.From 2019 to 2025,the increase of construction land in Songyuan City is relatively small.(5)From 2013 to 2019,the value of ecological services in Songyuan City has declined,and the ecological protection work in Songyuan City has some deficiencies in the past six years.However,by 2025,the trend of ecological service value will change,and the value of ecological services will increase significantly.At present,the ecological protection measures taken by Songyuan City have achieved preliminary results,and the ecological protection effect will be further manifested in 2019-2025.(6)From 2013 to 2025,the spatial autocorrelation of the ecological service value per unit area of Songyuan City will continue to increase,with a small increase from2013 to 2019.From 2019 to 2025,the spatial autocorrelation will increase significantly,and the regions with significant spatial autocorrelation will continue to gather. |
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