Study On Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Ofurban Agglomeration In Western China

With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization,the pattern of regional development in China has changed greatly,and the central cities and urban agglomerations are becoming the main space forms.With the continuous expansion and development of urban agglomerations,the internal systems and the elements of each system are playing a strong supporting role to promote the development of cities and urban agglomerations to a higher quality.Now,the western development strategy has entered the third stage.As the strategic key area and the leading development area of the Western Development,urban agglomeration will become the most dynamic and potential core area in the future economic development pattern,however,compared with the urban agglomerations in the eastern region,most of the urban agglomerations in the western region are still at the initial stage of development,and their overall strength level is relatively low,with large room for improvement,therefore,it is of great significance to study the comprehensive carrying capacity of urban agglomerations in the western region for the formation of a new pattern of the development of the western region.In this paper,nine urban agglomerations in the western region published in the National“14th five-year plan”are taken as the research object,and 72 prefecture-level or above administrative territorial entity units(prefecture-level cities,municipalities directly under the Central Government,autonomous prefectures and regions)within the urban agglomerations as the research units,firstly,the paper comprehensively analyzes the relevant policy documents of the state on the comprehensive carrying capacity of urban agglomerations,systematizes the relevant literature at home and abroad,and puts forward the concept and connotation interpretation of the comprehensive carrying capacity of urban agglomerations in this paper,from the five dimensions of economy,resources,environment,infrastructure and public service,19 indexes are selected to construct the evaluation index system of comprehensive carrying capacity of urban agglomeration in western China,this paper analyzes the comprehensive carrying capacity of each urban agglomeration and its inner city,and the five-dimensional subsystem carrying capacity,and reveals its space-time evolution law Secondly,the obstacle degree diagnosis model is used to diagnose the obstacle factors and degree that affect the improvement of urban agglomeration and its inner city comprehensive carrying capacity Finally,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to improve the comprehensive carrying capacity of urban agglomerations.The main findings of the paper are as follows:(1)the level of comprehensive carrying capacity of nine urban agglomerations in western China is increasing differentially.In 2019,the carrying capacity index of chengdu-chongqing urban agglomeration is 0.672,the increment is 0.262,the carrying capacity index of Ningxia urban agglomeration along the Yellow River is the lowest and the rising is the slowest,the carrying capacity index of 2019 is only 0.228,the increment is.075.The spatial distribution pattern of the comprehensive carrying capacity is relatively stable,and basically forms the high carrying area of the chengdu-chongqing urban agglomeration,the sub-high carrying area of the Guanzhong plain and the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration,the other urban agglomerations are located in the lower bearing area.At the same time,the comprehensive bearing capacity level of the Western urban agglomeration shows the spatial adjacent Heterogeneity,that is,the comprehensive bearing capacity level of the adjacent urban agglomeration is opposite.From the point of view of the comprehensive carrying capacity of the cities within the urban agglomeration,Chongqing and Chengdu,the central cities of the chengdu-chongqing urban agglomeration,have long been at the top of the pyramid of the comprehensive carrying capacity of the cities in the western region,the comprehensive carrying capacity index reached 0.609 and 0.520 respectively in 2019,and the comprehensive carrying capacity level of the central cities of other urban agglomerations was also the highest within their respective urban agglomerations,but was lower than that of Chengdu and Chongqing.The spatial distribution of urban comprehensive carrying capacity in urban agglomerations is stable,and most of them show the law that the central city is the high carrying area and decreases to the surrounding non-central cities.(2)the carrying capacity of the five urban agglomerations in western China has increased in different degrees.The average annual growth rates of the carrying capacity of economy,resources,environment,infrastructure and public services are 13.33%,4.80%,1.07%,8.77% and 3.80% respectively.The spatial distribution pattern of the bearing capacity of the five subsystems of the urban agglomeration has strong stability,and the economic bearing capacity level presents the spatial distribution characteristics of the east high and the West Low,the economic carrying capacity of the North Slope of Ten-zan,the North Slope of Lanzhou-Xining City Group and the Tianshan North Slope City Group are relatively low,while the economic carrying capacity of other city groups is relatively high,the bearing capacity of the other urban agglomerations on the two sides perpendicular to the connection of the three urban agglomerations is relatively low,and the bearing capacity of the chengdu-chongqing and Guanzhong plain urban agglomerations is relatively high at the carrying capacity level,however,most urban agglomerations in the south and the north have a lower bearing capacity spatial pattern,the spatial distribution of infrastructure and public service bearing capacity is consistent,and generally presents a spatial pattern of higher carrying capacity in the south and lower in the north,at the same time,it forms the spatial distribution pattern of infrastructure and public service carrying capacity with Guanzhong Plain City Group in the north and chengdu-chongqing City Group in the south as the high carrying area.In view of the carrying capacity of the five urban systems in the Western urban agglomeration,Chongqing and Chengdu are the cities with the highest carrying capacity of the other subsystems besides the environmental system.The carrying capacity of the economy,resources,infrastructure and public service subsystems of all urban agglomerations is the highest in the spatial distribution,but the carrying capacity is different,which shows that the carrying capacity of the central city is low,non-central cities are relatively high,and this pattern of spatial distribution has remained unchanged for a long time.(3)in view of the influence of the criterion level,the biggest obstacle factor of the comprehensive carrying capacity of the Western urban agglomeration is the infrastructure and the resource endowment,and more and more urban agglomerations restrict the promotion of the comprehensive carrying capacity because of the resource endowment condition.At the same time,the obstacle degree of infrastructure to the improvement of comprehensive carrying capacity of each urban agglomeration is reduced.According to the urban agglomerations,the Guanzhong plain,the Lanzhou-Xining and the Tianshan North Slope city agglomerations with infrastructure as the biggest obstacle factor at present;The biggest obstacle factors are the urban agglomerations of Beibu Gulf,Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin,Ningxia along the Yellow River,central Guizhou and central Yunnan,and the biggest obstacle factors are the urban agglomerations of Chengdu and Chongqing.And from the impact of the indicator layer,for a long time,the factors that have greatly restricted the enhancement of the comprehensive carrying capacity of the urban agglomerations in the western region include the per capita land area,the volume of road passenger transport,the per capita urban road area,the total volume of gas supply,the revenue from postal services,the number of people participating in unemployment insurance,etc,the biggest obstacle factors are chengdu-chongqing,Guanzhong plain,northern and central Guizhou urban agglomerations with per capita land area,and the biggest obstacle factors are Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin,Tianshan North Slope and Ningxia urban agglomeration along the Yellow River.The biggest obstacle factor of Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration is the per capital urban road area,and the biggest obstacle factor of central Yunnan urban agglomeration is the total gas supply.(4)from the view of the barrier factors of the cities in the Western urban agglomeration,the biggest barrier factors of the criterion layer are mainly the infrastructure and resource endowment conditions,and the largest barrier factors are more and more cities with resource endowment,the number of cities where infrastructure is the biggest obstacle is decreasing.From the influence of the index layer,the biggest obstacle factor has the diversity characteristic,but the dominant factors are the total gas supply,the postal service income,the per capita land area and the highway passenger volume.From the change of the number of the biggest obstacle factors,the number of the biggest obstacle factors in the inner city index layer tends to decrease,and the number of the biggest obstacle factors in the inner cities of Guanzhong plain and Beibu Gulf tends to increase,the maximum number of obstacles in the inner cities of the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration has been maintained at five,while the maximum number of obstacles in the inner cities of the Middle City of Guizhou and the Middle City of Yunnan has been only two.Based on the results of the empirical analysis,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the improvement of the comprehensive carrying capacity of 9 urban agglomerations in western China from the aspects of economic development,ecological construction,resource utilization,infrastructure construction and social public service.