Study On The Development Potential Of Grain Trade Between China And Russia

China is the biggest grain import country in the world.The Party and the government pay much attention to the safety of food trade.Currently,people in our country are facing the need of diversification of food,green,relying solely on domestic food production can not satisfy the market demand;At the same time,the change of residents’ dietary structure makes the proportion of demand for livestock products increase,which makes the long-term shortage of feed grains such as soybeans,which needs to rely on imports.However,in recent years,global hunger eradication and food security challenges have intensified.The COVID-19 pandemic,the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,as well as international trade conflicts,have disrupted the food supply chain of many parts of the world,triggering a new round of food crisis.Russia,as a representative of the SCO and the Belt and Road Initiative,has maintained a long term partnership with China..The two countries have factors conducive to food trade,such as stable political situation,continuous policy reform,each advantageous resource endowment and differentiated consumption demand.Therefore,the research on the complementarity and development potential of Chinese and Russian grain trade competition is very significant to optimize the pattern of grain diversification and promote the development of grain industry of China and Russia.Throughout the existing studies,it is found that there is insufficient quantitative research on the trade competition and complementary relationship of specific grain types between China and Russia in the academic circle,and few policy variables such as agricultural variables and international cooperation are introduced into the expanded gravity model,Which could lead to a bias in the calculation of Chinese and Russian grain trade potential.Therefore,on the basis of the existing research,we calculate the competition and complement relation of wheat,corn,rice and soybean in China and Russia.In the field of empirical analysis,this paper first selects relevant variables according to the analysis of economic environment factors,Trade policy factors,agricultural policy factors,natural environment factors and other factors of trade,and makes descriptive statistical analysis and correlation analysis of each variable.On this basis,the paper constructs the expansion model of trade gravity,and do the empirical regression analysis.Secondly,the robust performance of the extended gravity model is tested.At last,based on the results of the empirical study,the forecast value of the trade is calculated,and the relevant trade value is collected.In order to calculate the trade potential of Russian and Chinese food products,the comparison and analysis of the trade situation between the two countries is carried out.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Both China and Russia have problems in food trade security.(2)There is a great difference in the trade of different kinds of grain in China and Russia,and the grain trade structure is not stable.(3)National GDP level,population size,crop yield index,freedom of trade and exchange rate have significant positive correlation with Sino-Russian grain trade volume,while national distance and tax rate have significant negative correlation with Sino-Russian grain trade volume.(4)The size of the SinoRussian grain trade is small,which is the potential for the development of the grain trade.They occupy a relatively low proportion of each other in international trade,which has a huge space for development,and the trade potential needs to be tapped.Based on the results,some suggestions are given:(1)Optimize the distribution of grain consumption and guide residents to rational dietary structure.(2)Establish a grain monitoring platform system to correctly guide market expectations.(3)Promote grain distribution reform and improve transportation infrastructure construction.(4)Expand areas of food cooperation and optimize the grain trade structure.(5)Diversify the grain import market and create a diversified import model.(6)Studying and assessing the international food situation and promoting the building of international cooperation organizations.And the specific wheat,corn,rice,soybean four kinds of grain elaborated the relevant policy suggestions.