Study On The Potential And Realizing Path Of Grain Yield Increase In Jilin Province

Firmly maintaining food security is the necessary foundation for comprehensively building a modern socialist country.Since 2019,world food production has come under enormous pressure due to trade frictions,COVID-19 and natural disasters.In such an environment,China can still ensure food security and ensure food stability and self-sufficiency,which is inseparable from China’s policy of giving top priority to food security.The No.1 Document of the Central Committee in 2023 once again pointed out that all efforts should be made to strengthen grain production and comprehensively consolidate the foundation of food security.Governments at all levels actively implement the national food security strategy and unswervingly promote the development of the grain industry.Jilin Province,as one of the main grain producing areas in China,plays an important role in ensuring China’s food security,not only now,but also in the future.Therefore,the stable increase of grain production in Jilin Province is the priority among priorities in implementing the national food security strategy.Therefore,it has become an important issue to study how much the potential of grain increase in Jilin Province is and how to deeply explore the potential of grain increase and how to realize the real yield.Based on the relevant data of grain production in Jilin Province,this study analyzed the current situation of grain production in Jilin Province from 1991 to 2022,predicted the potential value of grain increase,analyzed the factors affecting grain production,and put forward the feasible path to realize grain increase.Firstly,the potential of grain increase in Jilin Province was analyzed from two aspects: grain sown area and grain yield per unit area.When the grain sown area and yield per unit area reached the theoretical value,it was concluded that the total grain increase potential of Jilin Province was 7.63 million tons.At the same time,through the empirical analysis,the grain increase potential of Jilin Province is 8.935 million tons,which is basically the same as the theoretical analysis.Secondly,by using statistical data,multiple linear regression model and ridge regression model were constructed to analyze the factors affecting grain production in Jilin Province.The results showed that: the total power of agricultural machinery,fertilizer application amount,grain sown area,grain disaster area and other factors significantly affected grain production in Jilin Province.On this basis,the paper proposed ways to increase grain production,such as improving mechanization level,scientifically reducing fertilization and increasing efficiency,protecting cultivated land quality,increasing grain sown area,improving agricultural disaster prevention and reduction capacity,and accelerating innovation in grain seed industry.