Research On The Evolution Of Global Soybean Trade Network Pattern From 1986 To 2020

Soybean is an important food crop and economic crop with a long history of development.As the origin of soybeans,my country’s soybean production and export used to be in the leading position in the world.However,with the reduction of my country’s soybean production and the continuous increase of consumption,in 2020,my country’s soybean production will only account for 5.41% of the world’s total,while The consumption accounts for 35.81% of the world,and the import dependence is as high as 84%.Today,my country’s soybean industry is facing a series of problems,such as slow development,unbalanced production and demand,high import dependence,and concentrated sources.Under the background of complex and changeable international trade environment,the development of China’s soybean industry is not optimistic.What is the basic structure of the global soybean trade network over the years? What is the spatial evolution pattern and development law of the network? What is China’s role,trade structure and development trend in the global soybean trade network? What are the factors affecting the evolution of the global soybean trade network pattern? What are the directions and ways out for the development of China’s soybean industry? Exploring the above issues will help deepen the global soybean trade relationship,promote the optimization and development of my country’s soybean trade market,and balance the stability of my country’s soybean supply and demand.Based on the soybean import and export trade data of 199 countries in the world from 1986 to 2020,this paper constructs a soybean trade network,adopts the social network analysis method,and analyzes the network density and average degree,average path length,clustering coefficient,point degree and point intensity and other indicators.The overall characteristics of the global soybean trade network,and the use of community division,block model,and core-periphery structure to explore the network structure characteristics,and then analyze the process of China’s soybean production,consumption and trade development from the three products of raw soybean,soybean oil and soybean meal.Finally,the reasons for the formation and evolution of the global soybean trade network pattern are analyzed from different levels such as the dislocation of global soybean production and consumption,natural resource endowment,economic development level,geographical distance,and policy systems.Finally,summarize the research conclusions of the above chapters and put forward corresponding policy recommendations.The main analysis conclusions are as follows:(1)From 1986 to 2020,the number of nodes in the global soybean trade network increased,and the trade volume increased rapidly,but the trade imbalance became increasingly serious.The number of exporting countries is small,mainly the United States,Brazil,and Argentina;the number of importing countries is large,mainly China,Japan,and the Netherlands.Soybean trade links between countries have become increasingly close,and the scale of the trade network has gradually increased.The number of countries participating in soybean import has increased significantly,the export market of soybean trade has become more concentrated,and the import market has become broader and more balanced.The average shortest path of the overall network decreases,and the transmission efficiency increases,but the network diameter is larger,the average clustering coefficient is small,the degree of network aggregation is low,and the overall network trade relationship is relatively scattered,and a standard "small world" has not yet formed.(2)From 1986 to 2020,the midpoint degree of the global soybean trade network has increased significantly,the trade of major soybean producing countries has developed more rapidly,the difference between the export degree and the in degree is increasing,the imbalance of imports and exports is more significant,and countries are more Tends to trade soybeans with countries with large nodes.The soybean importing countries are mainly distributed in North and South America,Western Europe,East Asia and Southeast Asia,and the exporting countries are mainly distributed in the main soybean producing areas of North and South America.(3)The development of the global soybean trade network presents an evolutionary process of integration and division of several major societies centered on major soybean producing countries such as Brazil,the United States,the Netherlands,Argentina,and China,and the relationship structure of American communities formed with the United States as the core.The most stable,the scale of each association continues to expand,the trade flow within the association is more intensive,and the trade connection between the associations is more open.The classification results of the block model show that there are always more plates in the position of the first owner,and there are always countries in the network that import a large amount of money and export a small amount.With the development trend,the trade exchanges between the plates have become closer,and the trade participation of peripheral countries has increased significantly.(4)The soybean trade volume varies greatly among countries.The trade intensity of a few countries is very high,and the trade intensity of most countries is very low;the high-intensity importing countries are mainly China,Japan,the Netherlands and Germany,etc.,and the high-intensity exporters The main countries are the United States,Brazil,Argentina and Canada.The community and block models in the weighted network of global soybean trade have changed more significantly.The spatial pattern has changed from a dual-core structure dominated by America and Europe to a three-pronged pattern dominated by Europe,America and Asia.Major soybean importing countries such as China and Japan are often located in the same association with major exporting countries such as the United States and Brazil due to their close ties.The plates with the United States and Brazil as the core are mainly export trade to other plates;the plates with China and Japan as the core are mainly import trade to other plates,and also export a small amount to other countries;South Africa,Mongolia and other Africa There are few trade links between the plates in which some Asian countries are located and other plates.In the core-periphery structure,only a few countries are located in the core position,mainly stably occupied by the United States,Brazil and China.Most countries are located in the semi-periphery and marginal positions and the number is increasing year by year,and the phenomenon of polarization is serious.(5)From 1986 to 2020,China has always played an important role in the global soybean trade network.After 1996,the growth rate of China’s soybean planting area and production was slow,but the consumption continued to rise,which made China’s soybean import dependence soar from21.67% to 85.15%,from a large producer and exporter to an importer.From the perspective of trade structure,China’s soybean imports are mainly raw soybeans,and its exports are mainly soybean meal.(6)From 1986 to 2020,most of China’s sectors in the global soybean trade network belonged to the primary position;in the core-periphery structure of the global soybean trade network,China has always been in the core layer structure,and the core degree has been rising(7)China’s soybean trade is one-way importoriented,with high dependence on foreign countries and concentrated sources,and soybeans face high trade risks.China’s dependence on soybean oil is relatively low,its development is more balanced,and its import and export market scope is small,and its trade targets are basically the same as soybeans.China imports the least amount of soybean meal,exports the most,and has the fewest trading partners,and both imports and exports are more concentrated.(8)The formation and evolution of the global soybean trade network pattern is the result of the combined action of various factors such as the dislocation of the global soybean production and consumption pattern,natural resource endowment,economic development level,geographical distance,and policy systems.Finally,this study puts forward several policy suggestions on promoting the development of my country’s soybean industry: optimize the trade structure and expand the trade market;give play to comparative advantages to enhance the competitiveness of my country’s soybean products;play and consolidate the core role,guide and strengthen regional trade links;increase my country’s soybean supply capacity.