Research On Identification And Hierarchical Structure Of Risk Factors Of Social Capital In Urban Rail PPP Projects

In recent years,the state has issued policy documents to encourage the application of Public-Private Partnership(PPP)in urban rail transit projects.However,such projects have huge investment,long construction period and numerous participants,which are accompanied by great risks.At present,most of the social capital parties in PPP projects are undertaken by major construction enterprises that are better at construction.It is undoubtedly a great challenge to participate in this PPP mode.It will cause serious consequences.However,the existing research rarely makes unique risk identification for the social capital,but in fact,there may be conflicts between the risks of different participants.Therefore,it is important to identify the risks of social capital and effectively explore its hierarchical structure.Firstly,through literature and expert interview,this thesis identifies 12 risk factors of social capital in urban rail transit PPP project.The questionnaire is used to distribute the influence relationship among the risk factors to experts in the field of rail transit.After processing the survey data,the DEMATEL model and ISM method are integrated,and the type distribution coordinate diagram of each risk factor is obtained by MICMAC method,and finally the transmission model between risks is determined.Finally,taking Tianjin Metro Line 7 as an actual case,the risk factors of its social capital side are Identification and analyzed.It is found that the risk factors of social capital are distributed in six floors,and the first and second floors belong to the surface risk factors,including market demand risk,insufficient operating income,delay of construction period and cost overrun of construction,which have the most direct impact on the project and are easily influenced by other risk factors.The third and fourth floors are middle-level risk factors,including changes in laws and regulations,financing risks and unreasonable contracts.They play a connecting role in the hierarchical structure,and their instability is the key and difficult point of risk management and control.The fifth and sixth floors belong to deep risk factors,including policy change,survey and design risk,engineering change,tax rate risk and inflation risk,which drive other risk factors.Based on the above research conclusions and case analysis results,this thesis puts forward corresponding risk prevention measures and suggestions.The research can provide guidance for the risk management of PPP project of urban rail transit,and also provide effective reference for the risk assessment of Tianjin Metro Line 7.