Trend Analysis And Prediction Study Of The Disease Burden Of Pancreatic Cancer Attributable To Smoking Among Chinese Residents From 1990 To 2019

Objective: To analyze the trends in the burden of pancreatic cancer disease attributable to smoking among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019,and to predict the disease trends from 2020 to 2030.Methods: Data related to the number of pancreatic cancer deaths,mortality,disability adjusted life year(DALY)and DALY rate attributed to smoking in China from 1990 to2019 were extracted from the GBD 2019 Global Burden of Disease database.Joinpoint regression models were used to analyze the mean annual percentage change(AAPC)of mortality and DALY rates,and their 95% confidence interval(CI).Gray prediction models were used to predict pancreatic cancer deaths and DALYs attributable to smoking in China from 2020 to 2030.Results: In 2019,22.60% of pancreatic cancer deaths were attributed to smoking and21.80% of DALYs were attributed to smoking in China.The number of deaths increased from 0.55 million in 1990 to 26.6 million in 2019,the mortality rate increased from0.47/100,000 in 1990 to 1.87/100,000 in 2019,DALY increased from 142,200 in 1990 to577,700 in 2019,and the DALY rate increased from 12.01/100,000 in 1990 to43.05/100,000 in 2019.from 1990 to 2019,the mean annual increase in mortality was4.87%(95% CI:4.55 to 5.03,P < 0.05)and the mean annual increase in DALY rate was4.46%(95% CI:4.16 to 4.76,P < 0.05).The overall levels of deaths,mortality,DALY and DALY rates were significantly higher in men than in women throughout the study period,with both mortality and DALY rates trending upward with age,peaking in the age group 70 years and older.The gray model predicts that the mortality rate will increase from 1.87/100,000 in 2019 to 2.53/100,000 in 2030,an increase of 35.29%,and the DALY rate will increase from 43.05/100,000 in 2019 to 58.93/100,000 in 2030,an increase of 36.89%.Conclusion: Currently,pancreatic cancer deaths and DALYs attributable to smoking are on the rise in China,posing a serious threat to our male and elderly populations,and the disease burden of pancreatic cancer attributable to smoking will continue to increase in China for some time to come.