Research On Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity And Allocation

With the development of population and economy, the great demand on water resources and its crisis has decrease the whole harmonious situation and capacity of compound water resources ecosystem greatly. Especially after 80^th in 20^th century the crisis of resources has been serious and many country and region has taken the serious water resources shortness and deteriorated ecology. The water resources shortness and decreased capacity has become one of the great challenges in 21^th century. So based on ecology-environment-economy development to study the compound water resources ecology system, set up index system and strengthen the water resources allocation analysis is much important.For this reason, this text regards sustainable development as basic guidelines and combines the system analysis theory, based on the water resources utilization potential, shortness extent, carrying capacity and security measure etc the comprehensive system assessment on regional water resources is carried out. In the paper the quantitative water resources carrying index factor system and dynamic multi-object assessment scheme is built up according to the supply and demand risk analysis. The whole thesis majors in the following problem study:1. To expound the research situations on water resources carrying capacity and optimized allocation all over the world. On the analysis of the intension and relative research basis, a quantitative water resources carrying capacity index system is set up including its quantity burdening capacity, economic burdening capacity, ecological burdening capacity and water quality burdening capacity and so on.2. According to the influence on water resources demand and supply and regional water resources supply-demand balance relation, the dynamic multi-object decision theory scheme and appraise method on the sustainable development system is presented.3. To present and set up a water resources allocation model based on the maximum net benefit and least water shortness. At the same time a weight coefficient is introduced into the GEM-AHP model. Through the weight adjustment relative with the industry, agriculture structure the allocation can be suited to the local development requirement, the parts of water resources and water using quantity of ecological environment, the expression of water quality and quantity is put forward according to the need of the living, the industry, the agriculture and the ecological environment. The allocation mechanism is studied in all from the angle of the characteristics of time development, goal tolerance, laws of value and the benefit of unit water resources supplied.4, South water to north project has taken a great effect on solving the regional water resources shortness crisis and contributed the sustainable development on compound system. In the paper a kind of water resources allocation model and restriction conditions are presented. Through the supply water quantity, minimum and maximum demand restrictions the model is used in zaozhuang city influenced by south water to north project. According to the computation results the sensitivity coefficient on...