Research On Risk Management Of The Development Of The Complex Equipment

Modern wars are dependent on the advanced technologies of the weapons. Thus the development for equipment has a great impact on the national military strategy and the national economy development. The equipment projects are characterized as high-tech, high-real-time, integrative, and complex. These features determine the high risk of the equipment projects. The quality of the implementation of risk management decides directly the success of the equipment projects. This paper adopts the theory and method of management sciences and risk management to make an integrated research on the development for equipment projects in the view of the entire life cycle management. The main research and achievements of this thesis are as follows.Firstly, the basic concepts of risk are introduced, and the relation between risk and probability distribution, and the utility function are analysed. The development of risk management in China and abroad is reviewed. After the systematical complexity of equipment risk is investigated, we construct the risk management system of equipment projects based on the Hall three-dimensional model, and propose the general principles of the equipment risk management.Then, we carry on multi-facets analyses on the risk management of equipment projects, including the risk plan, risk identification, risk evaluation and supervising about the development for equipment project. Regarding on the procedure of the equipment research and development, we define and classify the complex causes of the risk by setting up structural models for explaination, and thus provide solid base for promoting effective risk supervising and management. On the other hand, The PERT, AHP and gray fuzzy evaluation are employed synthetically to analyze schedule risk, cost risk and technique risk. In addition, We set up the risk evaluation dynamic system and models.Moreover, in order to implement dynamic supervision according to particularities of the equipment project development, we design the early warning system of equipment development risk and put forward the 5s element model. We also conduct a case study for a better understanding of core elements of the risk management for equipment research, and present new theory as well as new research methods.This thesis tries to set up a risk management system of complex equipment development and to provide some positive reference to establish effective implement method. The aim is to realize the application of the risk management in the research of the complex equipment.