Research On Theory And Evaluation Method Of Economic Adaptability Of Expressway

With the rapid development of economy and society in China, traffic modernization has been dramatically increased and the construction of integrated transport system has been tremendously improvd in the past few years. Under the background of increasing transportation demand, the relationship between transportation and economy, consequently, has been greatly changed. Economic adaptability of expressway focused in this dissertation is exactly existed in the process of traffic infrastructure construction and operation management. It is a kind of self-organization and adaption phenomenon which presents the coordination and interaction between complex systematic elements, and the course of adaptive regulation and evolution. And this dissertation made a further and systematical study on the economic adaptability of expressway from macroscopic view, and deeply analyzed the law and theory of expressway development in the complete process of planning, construction and operation management, aiming at providing reference for proposing reasonable transportation planning strategies and decision-making. Furthermore, this study has a positive and significant influence on the improvement of transportation management theory and transport economics related study.The main contents and related conclusion are listed as follows:Theoretical framework of the economic adaptability of expressway has been established based on the system theory. This paper consummated the academic definition of economic adaptability of expressway by analyzing its notation and hierarchy from the perspective of transport economic system and different disciplines. The characteristics, influenced factors, self-organization evolution and development mechanism of expressway economic adaptability have been given. In addition, the more complete study framework of expressway economic adaptability theory has been presented.The mechanisms and characteristics of economic adaptability of expressway in China have been studied. This paper analyzed the main problem existed in current theory, goal, and technical methods of expressway planning, discussed the roots of maladjustment and inconsistency between expressway planning & construction and economic development in the long term, presented the dynamic evolution, co-evolution, interactive pulling and leading feature and feedback control, etc in this period. And also, the paper put forward the study ideas of analyzing and evaluating the phased, regional and structural characteristics of the economic adaptability of expressway in the process of regional expressway and economic development from the point of view of scale, structure and layout.The methods of evaluating the expressway planning and construction adaptability from scale, layout and structure have been studied.1) On the study of scale adaptability, by using bi-level programming model, the paper set up a prediction model of the reasonable scale of regional expressway based on the economic adaptability;2) After the analysis of economic adaptability of expressway layout, developed the expressway network topology layout evaluation method based on the gravity model;3) On the study of structure adaptability, by using Logistic model the paper analyzed the features of expressway development in the process of transport structure adaptability evolution and empirical study, and verified the effectiveness and accuracy of the above models.The analysis and evaluation system of economic adaptability of expressway management and operation has been presented. This paper discussed the problems of how to coordinate the public welfare and the profit of expressway, established a complete system to analyze and evaluate economic adaptability of expressway management and operation from five aspects of adaptabilities such as management institution, mode, technology, business mode and toll collection. Meanwhile, the effect of several typical expressway management and business modes in China has been compared and evaluated using DEA method. Finally, this paper explored a novel approach to present not only the management and operation optimization mode adapted to economic characteristics but the expressway development as well in China.The analysis, prediction and evaluation of expressway economic adaptability have been implemented through simulation model. This paper proposed the conception and calculating methods of "expressway economic adaptation degree", set up the simulation model based on CAS theory. By simulating the adaptability evolution mechanism of "expressway-economy" composite system, simulation system applied to analyze and evaluate regional expressway economic adaptability has been developed. Taking a metropolitan area in the central part of China for example, this paper predicted and evaluated the expressway economic adaptation degree. The results are more reasonable and accurate indicating feasibility and creativity.