Sustainable Population Pooling

In the process of national population migration and redistribution, the relation between population and environment in eastern China is facing with significant challenges. Whether it is in accordance with regional planning, state-level population function zoning, or the region’s own development strategies, the eastern region will become China’s largest population-importing regions. Congregation of population are cfosely linked with the industrialization, unbanization and economic development in the eastern region, and in the process, the conflicts between population and environment are increasing, thus environmental degradation is faster than the region’s ability to repair itself, and environmental degradation happens with the development process, and environmental pressure seems to hazard the regional develoopment potential, and then the quality of the regional ecological environment is limited, and the possibility of the population to continue to gather to the eastern region is limited too.However, when we think about how to improve the population-environment relation, we find that the traditional ideas focused on the ecological carrying capacity, environmental capacity appear to be inadequate for solving the problems of sustainability of the Yngtze River Delta region. This is because the region is a highly open system, and many resources and environmental problems can be solved by domestic and foreign trade, so it is not very suitable for the actual carrying capacity of the region to act as the criteria for sustainable development. The famous British economist, founder of the theory of optimum population Edwin Buchanan also said there is a moderate level of relationship between land and population (I.E, capacity of the land), and this level is always changing. Also, previous studies on enhancing the sustainability is too one-sided and is focused on "reduction" and "suppression", for example, population growth is thought to cause unsustainable development and limiting population scale is thought to be a direct means help to achieve sustainable development. In this study, a basic view is that to achieve sound relationship of population-environment needs to study the relationship between the ecological environment and population changes in an integrated system. For this study, the initial thinking is how to observe population-environment relation and regional sustainability in a population importing area and to provide observation and recommendations on further promoting the sustainability for the development strategy of the eastern areas.The study takes of China’s major population congregation area of Yangtze River Delta Region as the study object, and first uses standard demographic methods to make a pre-judgment of the future development trend of population importing in the Yangtze River Delta region. The research shows the continuous population importing with population projections in Yangtze River Delta region and this will be still ongoing even when the total population of China begin to decline after reaching its peak.On the basis of the literature study and qualitative analysis, the research points that population is an important factor affecting the sustainability of the region, but not the only factor; the population-environment relationship is embedded within a complex system, and it can be said that in the context of population congregation there are some effective measures to improve the population-environment relation and enhance regional sustainability.Then the research tries to set up a series of conceptual framework focuing on the observation of sustainability, and tries to use sustainable first-order observation and second-order observation to constitute a regional sustainability assessment and use "sustainable population congregation" to study the region’s population-environment relationship. The conceptual framework suggests that if population congregation happens with environmental indicators improved, and the absolute sustainable population congregation is achieved which means no pressure with population-environment relationship; if population congregation happens with deterioration of environmental indicators while the rate of deterioration is less than the rate of population congregation, and the relative improvement of sustainable population congregation is achieved which means pressure on the weak state with population-environment relationship; if the rate of deterioration is faster than the rate of population congregation, and the unsustainable population congregation is achieved which means strong pressure with population-environment relationship. Thus to extend the previous two-dimensional judgments of regional sustainability to three-stage judge adding "sustainable improvements" stage which is the transition state from unsustainable to sustainable state. To some extent, such a decision can be supported by environmental Kuznets curve, and also overcome the previous subjectivity and regional issues such as open systems. The environmental degradation with pop ulation congregation maybe changed into more sustainable state from a weaker and sustainable development oriented conversion. Meanwhile, the conceptual framework also states that if the regional economy to maintain growing, and sustainable population congregation is achieved, and this means the realization of the "intelligent economic development", and the idea of such a development is different from the past "extensivegrowth" and "reduction" sustainable thinking..Research then takes the relationship of population-carbon emissions of "Yangtze River Delta region for example, and the history of "Yangtze River Delta region’s sustainable population congregation indicators are measured, indicating that the development of "Yangtze River Delta is an unsustainable state of population congregation in the past, that is, as the population congregation, the level of carbon emissions of the area is increasing faster than the speed of population congregation.In the conceptual framework, the research puts forward to ten paths from the theoretical perspective to achieve sustainable population congregation. In the above quantitative data collection, collation and verification work, the research makes construction of system dynamics model of the relationship between carbon emissions of the Yangtze River Delta from2005to2050through literature, econometric and social statistical analysis used as the base model, and the research also build eleven adjusting models on ten path assumption about the above population-environment relationship. Conclusions of these models are clear and convincing, based on the model I have listed a rich list of conclusions, and analyze policy implications for regional sustainability of these findings for the promotion of population-environment relations. The study found:First, some means will promote intelligent sustainable change, that is, in the case of no change or even slight increasing in economies scale, achieving sustainable population congregation. For example, to promote the industrial structure shift to tertiary industry, and contributing to the supply of high-tech agricultural products and improving service consumption; another example is the formation of a stable, good general concept of energy saving and implementation of a powerful regulation of environmental policy.Second, although some methods cannot guarantee the intelligent sustainable change, but for the effect of improving relationship between population-carbon emissions is very significant, lasting and effective. For example, to promote compact development. Another example is actively developing technologies to improve energy efficiency, and the effect may be less obvious in the short term, but enhance the improvement of the population-environment relation over time.Third, we need make trade-offs with some means, which means the effect of these methods for both enhancing economic scale and sustainability of population congregation cannot be reconciled, and this is actually the important awkward question while in real life most of the development to promote environment-friendly faces. For example, reducing productive investment, while the national economy is more to be used in environmentally friendly technology investment and consumption, etc., and this will reduce the economic level, but it is also environment-friendly changes. Increasing total factor productivity has greatly increased output, but also destroys the population-environment relationship. In addition, in this study, technology for reducing energy consumption level does not show positive "universal technology" effect, that is, simply rely on technology is not necessarily to achieve sustainable development. Of course, a good technology could promote the population-environment relationship, that is, environmental protection technology is really to expand the time scope and the results of sustainability.Fourth, there are some measures we are actively promoting, but not out of the improvement of re lation of population-environment, and if these policies do not cause significant bad impact on the environment, then we can say for other social development purposes, these means are "relatively" environmentally friendly. For example, the proportion of tertiary industry employment, promotion of employment structure, improving secondary industry employment flexibility, and ending the situation of the first industrial labor forced out, all these do not show significant environmental unfriendly, so for social stability and the purpose of promoting employment, these methods can be implemented in the process of regional construction of environment-friendly society. Another example is human resources development of the elderly, the elderly population to postpone leave the labor market, and promote productive aging society, and encouraging low-aged labor force to extend the years of schooling with further accumulation of human capital, delayed entry into the labor market, and all these also show no significant environmental non-friendly features, and even a slight improvement in environmental indicators.Fifth, we also get some other implications, such as making long-term regional development planning is necessary because the early planning will help to develop the concept of energy conservation and will help to give effect to the policy.In addition to these policy measures, the study also highlights the necessary conditions of realization of regional sustainable population congregation:time, cooperation and combination. Because the policy will take time to work effect, and a policy does not appear to harm the environment-population relations now which would seriously damage the environment. So, the full patient needs to be given to a policy to work effect and to pass examination; in addition, the early action of a measure will help us quickly reduce time costs and other costs to achieve the population-environment-friendly changes, and keep carbon emissions at a lower level, that is, to accelerate the speed of action, to accelerate the reaction rate, but enough time to test the policy. Regional cooperation is the most important factor related to whether the results of these policies can be implemented for all, and non-cooperation on the environment of ten results in zero-sum game, or even negative-sum-game. Combination of policies maximizes environmental, social, economic performance.At the end of the article, study tries to suggest some ideas for improving the relationship between population-environment according to the large-scale population congregation and rapid economic development in Yangtze River Delta region, and by complementary policy mix to avoid some negative social effects from some means for research and decision-making.In addition, we are looking to get four "cautious assessment" of the revelation:first, the long-term population projections are often characterized with great probability, as time goes by, the predicted probability range also becomes large, the precise point forecasts degree will be greatly reduced, so the long-term population projections need range forecasts and we need to be cautious on the point forecast, and more reliable is to observe growth curve rather than absolute values for long-term population forecasts. Second, although the regional system dynamics model describes the nonlinear complexity of intricate linkages, but in essence it remains a highly abstract and limited model, and in addition to system dynamics for the nature of its numerical simulation of long-term development will have the absolute deviation, and therefore need to remain cautious about the conclusions of the judge, for more systematic studies concern is the structure and trends. Third, more caution is given to the meaning and applicability of the theoretical framework for "sustainable population congregation", and sustainable population congregation does not mean"the more the population the more sustainable the situation". Finally, the importance of time, for the policy instruments relating to relationship between population-environment, the observation period should be stretched as far as possible, so to observe the whole process from policy implementation to effect disappearing, so that to take sufficient response for any situation that may occur, and too short period of policy research is often likely to result in miscarriage of justice, so for policy evaluation and research needs to maintain a certain degree of caution.All in all, for the region of population congregation of developing countries, the environment facing the dual pressures of the population congregation and economic development, and regional development there is different from the past, that is, developed countries "treatment after pollution" course, so to achieve "sustainable population congregation" is such a development path that will be a very challenging of return Whenever we all should know, whether it is difficult to determine achieving sustainable development with the effects of a combination of factors, but the implementation of the strategies to promote the sustainable population congregation is that we can take immediatly.