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Influence Of Water Level Change On The Yangtze River Shipping Logistics Cost: Mechanism And Model Research

Posted on:2015-01-18Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:T LiuFull Text:PDF
GTID:1109330452950006Subject:Logistics management
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Affected by the global climate change, storms, droughts and other extremeweather occur frequently in recent years. This extreme climate affects the YangtzeRiver a lot, leading to extreme water levels of Yangtze River occurrence frequently.Changes in extreme water level of the Yangtze River have a significant adverseimpact on shipping transport efficiency, transport safety and economic of the YangtzeRiver shipping. Under this situation, Starting from the perspective of shippingcompanies, port enterprises and good owners, this paper analyzes the influencemechanism of extreme water level change on shipping logistics cost and port servicecost, and measurement models are put forward. Moreover, conclusion drawn frominfluence mechanism provide scientific basis for the study of the Yangtze Rivershipping logistics efficiency, and has important practical significance for thedevelopment of waterway regulation, ship type development, ship transportorganization, shipping safety management, port construction and operation, etc.Research works and conclusions are as follows:1) Based on the study of Yangtze River Hydrological data, this article usesMann-Kendall and ARIMA methods to analyze characteristics of extreme water levelchanges of the Yangtze River in time and space in-depth, to conclude: from2004to2012, the major hydrological stations in the middle reaches of the YangtzeRiver,extreme flood water level in proportion is relatively stable, while extremeflood water level of Chenglingji and Jiujiang station has a longer periods;Apart fromHankou station, the proportion of other hydrological stations in the dry season,extreme water level was basically decreasing from east to west, extreme dry watergravity of Yichang station was the maximum in all major hydrological stations. Thus,the proportion of extreme flood water level of all major hydrological stations ispredicted to increase from2013to2020. However, the increase will not be soobvious compared with historical data; Apart from the volatility in Luoshan andJiujiang station, each of the other hydrological stations will be rather stable, whileproportion shows an upward trend, where proportion of extreme dry water level inYichang and Shashi station will rise by a big margin. Spatial characteristics and laws of Water level changes in middle reaches of theYangtze River shows that the time length of extreme dry water level is much longerthan the flood, where half of the upper middle reaches of the Yangtze River, namelyYichang-Chenglingji station, has a rather long time length of extreme water level, andwhich will persist in the coming period.2) From the perspective of system theory, the article analyzes the characteristicsand composition of shipping logistics system, and ascertains the objective of shippinglogistics system which is the coordination between supply and demand changes ofshipping logistics system. On the basis of dynamical systems theory, it studies thecomposition and causal relationship of shipping logistics system, based on which themodel of causal relationship between main factors is built; it proposes a dynamic passwithin shipping logistics system when the water level change as the environment andenergy exchange between the external environment and shipping logistics system,and analyzes the influence of water level change to channel, ships and ports waterwayof shipping logistics supply subsystem; on the basis of summarizing the shippinglogistics cost, this paper expounds the influence mechanism of water level change toshipping cost and port service cost, and builds its impact mechanism diagram;Furthermore, it puts forward the adaptive mechanism of shipping logistics systemunder the influence of the water level changes.3) From the perspective of shipping companies, it analysis the constituentelements of shipping costs, including ship loading rate, ship speed, ship waiting time,etc. Besides, effect laws of loading rate for different ships are studied. Moreover,under some certain assumptions, measurement model of shipping cost affected bywater level changes is put forward. At last, with the empirical analysis, the reliabilityand accuracy of the measurement model is proved.4) From the perspective of port enterprises, it studies the service costcomponents, including berthing, cargo handling process, storage and other relatedbusinesses for ships. Efficiency of cargo-handling and retention time affected bywater level changes are studied. Moreover, under some certain assumptions,measurement model of port operation cost affected by water level changes is putforward. At last, with the empirical analysis, the reliability and accuracy of themeasurement model is proved. 5) From the perspective of good owners, it studies the cost elements, includinglogistics cost and time cost of goods. Besides, this paper studies the effects of waterlevel changes on the time cost of goods. By integrating measurement models of shipand port operation cost affected by water level changes, the comprehensivemeasurement model is put forward to calculate the logistic cost affected by waterlevel changes. At last, with the empirical analysis, the reliability and accuracy of thecomprehensive measurement model is proved.
Keywords/Search Tags:Water level change, The Yangtze River, Shipping logistics cost, Influence mechanism
PDF Full Text Request
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