Researches On The Inter-province Disparities Of Industrial Growth Pattern Under The Constraints Of Low-carbon

Since the industrial revolution, with the progress of technology, a variety of energy are exploited and utilized, the global economy is grow in high speed driven by the two wheels of industrialization and urbanization. However, human activities create great wealth, but at the same time the activities also cause serious environmental pollution and ecological degradation, which lead to a vicious global climate change. Resources and environment problems have become one of the most important issues that humanity must face with and these problems have become a bottleneck in the future economic and social sustainable development.30 years of reform and opening up, China’s rapid economic growth make the world surprise, but this rapid growth is at the expense of amount of energy consumption and serious environmental pollution, a large number of consumption of fossil fuels in industrial production lead to a massive amount of carbon dioxide emissions. Such situation makes the country face dual pressures of economic sustainability and international emission reduction requirements, so industrial growth model transformation is imperative. Therefore, the study of industrial grow pattern in the restriction of low carbon is not only more attuned to the current energy saving requirements, but also makes the measurement of industrial growth pattern is more scientific and reasonable.China has a vast territory, but the regional imbalance in development is a more prominent problem. As the geographical conditions and the different national support policies, local economic development, industrial development phase, industrial growth pattern are all very different. Then, in the low-carbon constraint what is the typically characteristics of industrial growth in each province? Where does the industrial growth pattern in various provinces differ? How is the transformation process of industrial growth mode? What factors determine the provincial differences of industrial growth pattern? How to achieve the win-win of economic growth and energy saving through promoting the transformation of industrial growth pattern under the constraints of low-carbon constraints? At present although some of these problems has been studied, there are still some shortcomings:There is no clear definition for industrial growth pattern based on the criteria of contribution of the green TFP to industrial growth rate, further there is no study about the evolution of industrial growth pattern in the provinces; most studies do not use the latest and most appropriate non-radial, non-angled SBM directional distance function and the Luenberger productivity indicator to estimate green TFP; when determine impact of factors of the industrial growth pattern, there exists too much randomness, the selection basis is not clear and there is no analysis for the impact mechanism of various factors on the green TFP, in addition there is no consideration of spatial correlation about green TFP. This dissertation will attempt to make a expand research in light of the above deficiencies existing in current literatures.This dissertation is divided into six chapters, the main contents and conclusions of each chapter are the following:Chapterl:Introduction. In this chapter we first introduce the research background and research meanings, and then we depict the research status of relative issues in detail. Through summarize the previous references we construct the ideas of this dissertation and briefly introduce the main methods used in this dissertation. Finally we generalize the major contents of each chapter and descript the innovative works.Chapter 2:Review of relative theories. This chapter concludes two aspects:theory of low carbon economy and theory of transformation of economic growth pattern. Firstly we illuminate the connotation of low carbon economy and its theoretical basis, and then we comb the basic theory of economic growth pattern. Following we give a discrimination on the concept and classification of economic growth pattern. Finally we introduce the methods of measurement economic growth pattern. It has two methods:the comprehensive evaluation method of multi-index and total factors productivity analysis. Because the comprehensive evaluation method of multi-index is more randomness and it can not able to define the industrial growth pattern, this method does not be used comprehensively. This dissertation will study the industrial growth pattern covering provinces under low-carbon constraints using the analytical method based on green total factor productivity and the results will in accordance with the reality of economy.Chapter 3:Classic characteristics of industrial growth pattern:based on the input and output data. Firstly we analyze the form background of extensive economic growth pattern, review the course of reform and opening up since the year of 1978 and point out the energy and environmental costs along with the economy development unprecedentedly; we then describe the classic characteristic of industrial growth pattern of different provinces according to the three intensity indexes constructed through the data of input and output of industrial production and we form the initial judgment to the provincial disparities of industrial growth pattern. The empirical study show that there exists the phenomenon of continuous capital deepen in our eastern, western and central regions, but the degree is somewhat different, which reflect the characteristic of high input existing in the extensive economy growth pattern; the degree of energy consumption and carbon emission in three types of regions all have a decreasing trend in the period of 1998-2011, but the rate of decreasing is slower, which indicates that recent years our work of energy conservation and emission reduction has achieved initial success but the difficulties is become increasing; In addition, about 80% of the provinces have a high degree in the aspects of energy intensity and carbon emission, which expressed as the extensive features of high energy consumption and high emission in the pattern of industrial growth. From the view of three regions the three indexes depicting economic growth pattern show identical tendency, the eastern region is better than the central region, and the central region is better than the western region, but the disparities between the eastern region and the central as well as western region is obvious, the disparities of the central and western regions has been very close; and the internal disparities of each region is also large. Overall China’s industry is still in the stage of extensive growth and the disparity among provinces for the features of industrial growth is much significant.Chapter 4:Inter-provincial differences of industrial growth mode:based on green TFP. In the chapter we analyze the features of industrial growth, following that we use the non-parametric production frontier method to quantitatively define the mode of industrial growth. Firstly we measure the index of green TFP using the methods of SBM directional distance function and Luenberger productivity indicator; based on it we compare the differences between the traditional TFP and the green TFP. Then we define the industrial growth pattern according to the contribution rate of the green TFP to industrial growth and analyze the disparities of economic growth pattern of inter-region and inter-province. Further we do a more detailed decomposition (technological progress, technological efficiency, scale efficiency and technological scale efficiency) to the green TFP. The results show that there exist obvious disparities between the traditional TFP and green TFP. We may over estimate the productivity omitting energy and carbon emission factors, which embodies the role of low-carbon constraints. Only the green TFP that considers the environmental costs can really measure the efficiency of industrial growth and we then make a reliable judgment for the pattern of provincial industrial growth. On the whole, the green TFP contribution to China’s industrial growth rate from 1999-2011 showed a successive decline and then upward changing trend. Specifically, such changing mode of the growth rate in China’s eastern, mid-land and western districts was roughly identical to that of the whole country’s pattern. However, things were still different:the mode of the growth rate in China’s eastern part had gone form an extensive economy to an intensive one during 1999-2001 (with an extensive to quasi-extensive development stage as the go-between); both the mid-land and western parts were basically at the extensive economic developing phase, and the degree of the extensiveness of the mid-land was even higher. The industrial growth pattern of each province within these three parts were still quite different, there existed intensive and extensive economic development situations, and their changing trend was not identical to that of the whole country’s and even to that of the three parts’developing trend as a whole. The true picture was as follows:the internal variance of both the eastern and western parts was very clear, different province had different intensive or extensive economy; such variance was of little importance in the mid-land, for almost all provinces of this part were basically at very extensive industrial growth stage. In view of these three parts, we say that the increasing rate of green TFP of the eastern part is higher than that of the mid-land and western parts, although provincial differences are still there (chiefly in the eastern and western parts), it is these differences that determines the mode of economic development for each province in these areas. The decomposition of the green TFP has shown that the increase of it was mainly due to technological advancements, the scale of efficiency had some positive effect on it too, but the pure technological efficiency inhibited it, only in the eastern part the pure technological efficiency had positive effect on the increase of green TFP. That is to say, the major factors which bring about the differences among provincial green TFP are technological advancements, technological efficiency and the scale of efficiency. This tells us that technological innovation and introduction has become a key path in changing the mode of industrial development in these areas; on the one hand, the frontier technological advancements did promote the fast increase of TFP, and on the other hand, they lowered the technological efficiency. Both the pure technological efficiency and the scale of efficiency had little effect on green TFP, which showed that through management innovation and letting large industrial firms pull all out, it still leaves room for leveling up the rate of green TFP. Energy and capital are the two major factors promoting industrial growth, which reflects that China’s industrial growth is still in the stage of resource-driven and capital-driven.Chapter 5:Analysis of the determinants of inter-provincial differences of industrial growth pattern. Based on the definition of each province’s industrial growth pattern in last chapter, in order to determine the causes of inter-provincial differences of industrial growth pattern, this chapter further analyzes the determinants of industrial growth patterns from two perspectives: first we use the convergence analysis to examine whether the increase inter-provincial disparities of green TFP can be able to gradually narrow relying on their own evolutionary mechanisms; then based on the economic growth theory, based on the component composition of green TFP decomposition and its characteristic elements to choose green TFP growth factors, taking into account that the green TFP may have spatial correlation, we use spatial econometric methods to establish and estimate spatial econometric model to determine the significance of various factors impacting on the green TFP. Study found that the whole country,the Eastern, the Middle and the westen areas before 2008 shows a certain tendency of a convergence and divergence begin after 2008, the overall trend remains convergence, and the differences of TFP growth green in provinces of eastern region is the biggest western is the smallest; National and three regions all exist absolute (3 convergence and conditional P convergence, indicating that their green TFP in provinces can eventually rely on own evolution path, and achieve the same growth rate, and the own conditions of provinces have a influence for the convergence rate of TFP growth green. The author of this paper uses Moran’s I spatial correlation index to judge whether the increase of green TFP has spatial correlation effect, and builds up a SEM panel model with time-spatial fixed effect, adopts the maximum likelihood method to evaluate the parameters, so as to conduct the whole domain spatial econometric analysis. From the results we can see that there is a negative correlation effect among the whole domain in terms of the increase of green TFP; human capital, independent research and development, marketing level, and enterprise scale all have positive effect on the increase of green TFP. However, FDI, and environmental regulations on industrial structure have restraining effect. In conducting the local spatial econometric analysis, the author uses Moran’s I scattering plot to judge whether the green TFP has local spatial correlation effect, and then builds up a geographically weighted regression model to obtain the weighted least squares estimates. The results show that the increase rate of green TFP has both local spatial similarity and heterogeneity, with the heterogeneity more significant; on the whole, the results of local and whole domain spatial econometric analyses enjoy certain consistency, but differences are still clear, which appear in the signs and relative strengths of regression coefficients, and in the corresponding significant levels as well.Chapter 6:Conclusions, policy advice and research prospects. Firstly we summarize the conclusions of the previous chapter study, and then we propose some policy recommendations for accelerating the transformation of industrial growth pattern under low-carbon constraints. We think appropriate policy adjustments and institutional arrangements can contribute to the acceleration of industrial growth pattern transformation and achieve coordinated development of the provinces. Ultimately we point out the shortcomings and future research directions.The innovative works are mainly reflected in the following aspects:1、we make the contribution rate of green TFP to industrial growth as a judgment standards for determining the type of industrial growth pattern, and we give a clear judgment for the growth pattern of the country, three regions and the provinces.2、we use the non-radial, non-angled SBM directional distance function and Luenberger productivity indicators based on slack variable study the industrial growth pattern under the constraints of low-carbon, and at the same time consider energy input elements and "undesirable output" carbon emissions to estimate green TFP, which makes the results is more in accordance with the reality.3、we comprehensively explore the determinant influence of TFP growth green from two perspectives of its own evolutionary mechanisms and external influential mechanisms and analyze the deep-seated reasons resulting in the inter-provincial differences of industrial growth pattern.4、when determining the external factors of green TFP, we not only consider the common factors but also consider the spatial correlation of the green TFP. Through using the spatial econometric methods we test the space effect of green TFP and empirical analyze the impact of various factors on green TFP; the results are more realistic and reliable.