Study On Macro Policy Of Enhancing Comprehensive Support Capability For Food Security

Food security has been of great strategic importance, concerning national economy, social stability and national independence. Despite the fact that the Central Party Committee and the State Council attach great importance to put agricultural development as top priority in national economy and have solved the problem of feeding hundreds of millions of people in China. Factors such as lagged development in science and technology as well as yield per unit are restricting the development of grain production from keeping going up. China’s gain demand annually increases by 10 billion Jin at a fast pace, which objectively requires reliable support capacity.Firstly, the thesis conducts a systematic analysis of related theories with regard to the comprehensive capacity of food security, then gives a tentative study of the extension and intension of comprehensive capacity of food productivity, food technological innovation, international resources utilization, balanced food market, macro-control. Secondly, this thesis carries out an analysis of the state’s policy on the by employing the approach of graying and measuring. It is concluded that there are some merits and flaws of each period, which justifies the necessity of improving regulation and macro-control policies on comprehensive security safeguarding. The thesis analyses the precious experience of regulation and control of the grain market of other countries by conducting a comparative study on different policies of US A、EP、Japan. Thirdly, based on the definition of comprehensive safeguarding for grain security, the thesis puts forward a comprehensive security safeguarding capability evaluation index system of grain security with 5 primary indicators and 40 secondary indicators, by combing the approaches of ANP and the Objective Entropy Method, to calculate its Comprehensive weight calculation, thus reaching three conclusions:(1)primary indicators such as capacity of comprehensive grain production parity of macro-control policy, capacity of technological innovation, and capacity of creating a balanced market, and capacity of utilizing international resources using five level indicators on grain integrated guarantees capacity, accounts for 0.453,0.265,0.089,0.153 and 0.04, which indicates that macro-control policy plays a vital role on safeguarding grain security; (2) among the secondary indicators, of which there are five playing a minor role:the number of agricultural R&D, Agricultural R&D development agency, R&D talents of undergraduates in agriculture, the number of published papers concerning agricultural science and technology, the number of valid patents of inventions in agriculture, which are the generally reflection of the insufficient role of current backward science and technology on grain in China, which need to be strengthened. The indicators which play an overwhelming role are crops sown area, effective irrigated area and per capita arable land, employment in primary industry, fertilizer application rate, which signifies that in the elements of grain production and resource protection, is fundamental to improve the capacity of China’s grain security. (3)Then the thesis conducts a comprehensive assessment to evaluate the capabilities of comprehensive safeguarding for grain security from the year 2009 to 2012, reaching the conclusion that the level of comprehensive grain security ability in China reaches 2.25, with a level for "strong". Fourthly, the thesis establishes the assessment model about comprehensive security safeguarding capacity and policy effect by using System Dynamics theory, through adjusting the parameter of the model, the thesis carries out a simulation analysis to the influence of macro-control on demand and guarantee of grain since the year 2000, as well as verifies the power of influence of various policy changes on the grain supply and demand. Also, an analysis is conducted on the policy effect of main macro-control policies from the year 2009-2012. Then the thesis comes to the conclusion that the effect of fiscal policy of grain production in 2012 accounts for 0.447, processing and consumption effect 0.179, circulation and reserve effect 0.1698; price policy on production effect of grain 0.315, on the processing and consumption effect 0.095, finance and insurance policy on production effect of grain 0.0745. What we can clearly from the conclusion is that the policies may exert influence of grain security capacity to different degrees.Last but not the least, according to the relationship of the policy effect and comprehensive security safeguarding capacity, the thesis puts forward a systematic design of micro-control to enhance comprehensive security safeguarding capacity, as well as a four layer policy system, with enhancing grain security as a primary role, to improve the comprehensive security safeguarding capacity and grain market interests as the secondary goal. Meanwhile, the thesis carries out a detailed classification and design respectively on the goal of policies on grain security safeguarding, circulation and reservation, processing and consumption security target as well as whether each policy goal well supports its higher goals and puts forward countermeasures to improve the capacity of safeguarding food security. Among them, the supporting level to improve the capacity of food comprehensive safeguarding is 0.46 and the supporting level to ensure the food maximum profit is 0.54. According to comprehensive comparison of the supporting size of various policies in different parts, the thesis will propose the macroscopic countermeasures to enhance the comprehensive safeguarding of food security in China.