Study On Project Bidding Risk Management Of Super Construction Corporation

The construction industry has been rapidly developed as a supporting industry in China since the reform and opening up in the end of 1970 s. Meanwhile, the project bidding risk management(PBRM) is becoming the primary indicators for core management capacity evaluation of construction enterprises. Compared with foreign construction enterprises, the PBRM research of domestic construction enterprises needs further improving. In the current multiple positive situations, such as preparation of "One Belt and One Road"(OBOR) and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB), and globalization strategy of China’s high speed railway, how to improve PBRM capacity of super construction corporations(SCC) has become the most important task for evaluating whether the SCC has opportunities for further development.This dissertation mainly focused on the SCC-PBRM. The systematical science theory, integrated with multiple theories and methods, including system theory, risk management, engineering technology management, project management, dissipative structure theory, catastrophe theory, multivariate statistical analysis, coordination theory, fuzzy mathematics, control theory, case based reasoning, and decision support system and information theory were employed. Through investigation and literature study, the concept, origin, formation mechanism, evolution history and Intelligent Decision System of the SCC-PBRM were systematically researched with the purpose of enriching and perfecting the relevant theories and methods. Finally, the theoretical framework of the SCC-PBRM was established. The theoretical knowledge and skill of the SCC-PBRM were enriched and perfected.The main contents of this dissertation are as follows:(1) Based on literature research and characteristic analysis of the SCC, the connotation of the SCC and the conception of the project bidding risk were re-defined. The research scope of the PBRM process was also proposed.With the development of the marketing economy, the PBRM has beenbecoming the primary management function of enterprise. According to current situation of the PBRM, this research re-defined the connotation of the SCC and the conception of the project bidding risk, and proposed the contents, methods and technical path of the PBRM research.(2) Based on the analysis of systematical science theory and the PBRM, the PBRM research framework was established to ensure the systematicness and completeness of the research contents.Combined with the analysis of system theory and referencing the sources of SCC-PBRM later, the risk factors of project bidding, such as sources, capacity, organizational management and bidding operation were obtained. The external environmental factors caused by system complexity and system boundary-divided were revealed. The characteristics of complex system such as opening, far from equilibrium, nolinear, fluctuation and mutation were analyzed. On this basis, the origin, formation mechanism and evolution of risks were discussed in order to understand the principle of enterprise periodic development caused by the dissipative structure theory. Two major types of risk management, including corporation periodic project bidding risk system and engineering bidding risk system, were inducted according to the continuous dynamic system and discrete dynamic system. By study on the systematical analysis of the system engineering theory, the PBRM process was defined as following: risk identification, analysis of risk conduction path, risk assessment, risk warning response and simulation theory. The preliminary research framework was established based on SCC-PBRM.(3) Based on construction of the 3-D structural model, concept model and risk identification model the key risk factors and its sub-factors were assumed and identified by factor analysis and regression analysis.Under the guidance of systematical analysis theory and the Holder’s 3-D structural analysis, the 3-D structure of SCC-based project bidding risk factors and the concept model of PBRM were constructed.. On this basis, the 3-D structural framework was also analyzed and constructed. Based on the assumptions on the project bidding risk factor, the index system of risk factors was established. Through the factor analysis and regression analysis based on the data of questionnaire survey with SPSS19.0 software, 6 key risk factors(including industrial environment, basic resources, operation ability, operation financial management ability, bidding organization and bidding operation) and their containing 27 key risk sub-factors of project bidding risk were identified and acquired.(4) Combinated with identified key risk factors and based on assumption of conduction path model, Amos structural equation model(SEM) was analyzed and the modification effect conduction path of key risk factor was obtained, which confirmed the risk effect and provided a basis for the risk control.On the basis of identification of key risk factors in project bidding, project bidding risk conduction path model was hypothesized according to SEM analytical theory. By calculating and analyzing of hypothetical model using AMOS 22.0, modification path model was gained and verified, which revealed that there was direct(bidding operation directly influences risk results) and indirect(other factors indirectly influence risk results by bidding operation) risk influential relationship among project bidding risk factors. Finally, the influential sequence of order of risk result caused by 6 key risk factors in SCC was as following: bidding operation, bidding organization, basic resources, industry environment, financial management ability and management ability, showing that bidding operation was an important role for other operation and coordination.(5) Based on identification of main risk factors, SCC risk evaluation index system was established. Triangular fuzzy number analysis and weight survey were employed. The risk value and the evaluation results of assumption model was obtained, which could provide data support for early warning of risk response.By identifying project bidding risk factors and analysis of conduction path, project bidding risk evaluation index system was constructed.In combination with questionnaire survey to evaluate matrix, evaluation vector was gained by using the triangular fuzzy number to calculate the index weight, and in combination with the median risk degree, the moderate risk was considered as the comprehensive evaluation of project bidding risk.The risk results of secondary evaluation indexes were as following: industrial environment→low, operation ability→medium, bidding operation risk→medium, operation financial management ability→high, bidding organization→high, basic resources→higher.(6) Based on risk evaluation and guided by system control theory, the early warning index system of project bidding and responded index system were established, and risk early warning response mechanism and safeguard mechanism were constructed, which perfected the integrity of project bidding management necessary theory.Under the guidance of systematical control theory, project bidding risk early warning response of SCC was tried to be defined, and project bidding response index system and early warning index system were constructed by modifying the project bidding evaluation index system.According to practical needs of risk control and operational requirement, risk early warning trigger scan model, response optimization model and early warning linkage model were established. And on this basis, the bidding risk early warning response mechanism was established, which was the foundation for risk automatic control system.(7) Guided by system simulation and information theory and based on the above researches, the definition model of PBR-CBR-IDSS for SCC was proposed. The reliability of the model was verified by research and practice.Based on research of theories and methods of PBRM, through the analysis of the system simulation modeling, big data simulation, theory of CBR and decision support system(DSS), the concept and theory model of intelligent decision support system(IDSS) of project bidding risk were presentedwith the purpose of thestudy and application of two types model of PBRM for operation periodicity and engineering project. According to software development process of software engineering theory, the working principle and development idea of IDSS were researched and presented.Taking a tunnel bidding as an example, the system feasibility was confirmed and the best results of bidding risk system simulation and efficient decision were achieved, which completed the risk approach systems and enriched the theoretical system of bidding risk management.The main innovations of this study are as follows:In view of the existing problems and the insufficiency of SCC-PBRM, guided by the system science theory, the origin, formation mechanism, risk identification, risk factors structure, risk assessment, risk early warning and response, IDSS of SCC-PBRM, etc. have been anatomized. The main innovative points were as follows:(1) Based on PBRM of SCC, the research framework system of systematical science theory was proposed.Based on systematical science theory system, this dissertation makes an attempt to employ theories and methods of system theory, systematical engineering theory, control theory and information theory to elaborate the definition of project bidding risk system, structure and mechanism of risk factor, risk identification and evaluation methods, risk early warning response mechanism and intelligent decision system in order to establish the research framework system of PBRM.(2) The research models base on SCC-PBRM were proposed and built, and the corresponding research results were obtained.Structure model of project bidding risk factor, risk identification model, hypodissertation conduction path analysis model, risk early warning scan trigger model, optimization response model and early warning interaction model were constructed in this dissertation. Through factor analysis, regression analysis and structural equation model analysis, project bidding key risk factors and its working conduction path were obtained.On this basis, the project bidding risk early warning response mechanism was proposed, which provided technology and methods support for risk automatic control.(3) The PBR-CBR-IDSS of SCC was researched and developed based on case-based reasoning.Through the theory and technical analysis of system simulation modeling, big data simulation and CBR, discussion of realization technology and methods of decision support system, the conceptual model of PBR-CBR-IDSS for PBIDS was proposed. And the key technologies of implementation of this conceptual model were studied in detail. By case analysis, stability and feasibility of the PBR-CBR-IDSS were confirmed.