| Since the adoption of the reform and opening-up policy, especially after joining the WTO in2001, China’s manufacturing industry has maintained sustained and rapid growth, surpassed the United States’ manufacturing industry and ranked first in the world in2010, and it had a decisive effect in promoting China’s economic development and accelerating the industrialization process. The achievements of China’s manufacturing industry is largely dependent on the growth effects and technical progress effects of its highly concentrating in the eastern coastal areas, which also formed a industrial spatial pattern of "extreme east-dipping". However, along with the increasing of industry concentration, a series of economic and social problems, such as regional development disparities, factor prices soaring up, excessive competition, traffic congestion and environmental pollution were brought, which imply that the existing pattern of development is not sustainable. China’s manufacturing industry will enter into a deeply reconstruction phase of space restructuring and technological upgrading.Based on a systematic review of relevant domestic and foreign studies, this paper bring the concept "factor relative price" of New Structural Economics into spatial economics theoretical system of industrial agglomeration and regional transfer. In order to analyze the internal mechanism of industry transfer and technological upgrading which result from excessive agglomeration, the paper expand the concept’s connotation as two types:the relative price of the same elements in different regions, and the relative prices of different elements in one region. On the basis of this, the paper builds a theoretical analysis framework which including relatively developed regions, relatively backward areas, high-tech industries and general technology industries, then some specific research are carried out in this framework.Firstly, this paper briefly analyzes the overall situation of China’s manufacturing industry, measures the aggregation and diffusion of China’s manufacturing industry of2001-2011from regional and industrial levels by using methods of industry concentration degree, location quotient, spatial Gini coefficient and EG index. The studies show that the transition from gathering to spread is roughly during2005-2008. In the meantime, manufacturing industry’s internal structure has also undergone some changes, which embodies the feature of rising from low technical level to middle technical level.Next, this paper uses the provincial statistics data and sub-industry statistics and a two-stage SYS-GMM method which can overcome the problem of endogenous effectively, empirically test the development effect and crowding effect of industry agglomeration from regional and industrial levels. Studies show that:Overall, China’s manufacturing industry agglomeration has "inverted U" relationship with regional economic growth and industrial growth, which means that China’s manufacturing industry exists a certain degree of over-agglomeration. In sub-regional perspective, the eastern industrial agglomeration has "inverted U" relationship with economic growth, while the middle area and west area has a significant positive relationship between industrial agglomeration and economic growth. In industrial perspective, the textile industry, paper and paper products industry, general equipment manufacturing industry and communications equipment, computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry have been appeared over-concentration. The test of technology effect of industry agglomeration shows that1%growth of the degree of manufacturing industry agglomeration will promote0.55%growth of technological progress index.Then, the paper constructs industrial gradient transfer coefficient, uses the provincial statistical data from2001-2011to measure the industrial gradient transfer coefficient of the four over-concentration industries, which providing empirical evidence of regional transfer. The results show that:the textile industry should mainly transfer from Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang to Fujian, Hubei, Ningxia and other places; paper and paper products industry should mainly transfer from Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong to Fujian and Hunan; general equipment manufacturing industry should mainly transfer from Beijing, Tianjin, Heilongjiang, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Guangdong to Liaoning, Shandong and Sichuan; communications equipment, computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry should mainly transfer from Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Shandong and Guangdong to Fujian and Chongqing.Finally, this paper divides the whole industry into general technology industry and high-tech industry, uses provincial data of2004-2011and two-stage SYS-GMM method to empirical study the difference between the two types of industry of the effect of industrial agglomeration on industry growth. It found that general technology industry agglomeration has "inverted U" relationship with industry growth, and most eastern provinces have been located in the downward path; in the meantime, although high-tech industry agglomeration has "inverted U" relationship with industry growth, only Guangdong is located in the downward path, it means that it is also feasible to drive regional technical upgrade through high-tech agglomeration. Further empirical research on the affect factor of high-tech industry agglomeration found that the ease of transportation is the most important factor, human capital is the second, firm scale and opening degree also play an important role. Based on these studies, the paper puts forward policy recommendations to guide the high-tech industry agglomerate reasonably to promote regional technological upgrade.
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