Impact Assessment On Cival Aviation In China For Cabon Taxation Based On CGE Model

Carbon emissions in aviation industry is the fastest growing industry among thehuman-made sources of carbon emissions. It was proved by other study that thecarbon emissions in aviation industry was going to offset the emission reduction ofother industries without control, thus the limitation on the carbon emissions ofaviation industry is mandatory. Therefore the researching of impaction on thedevelopment of China’s civil aviation industry is essential for preparation of carbontax of aviation.There are4parts in the paper. Firstly, the previous study about effect of carbon tax onsome other aspects of the economy, society, international competition and the civilaviation industry are illustrated in literature review. The important role of CGE modelin study of the assessment of carbon tax policy and carbon emission reduction effectare identified. Secondly, the carbon emissions of aviation, the mode of carbon tax andthe status of carbon tax in the world are summarized and compared. Thirdly, a staticAVICGE model is established. The macro SAM and the Aviation micro SAM areconstructed upon the extension table of input-output table (2010) and the civilaviation of China Statistical Yearbook (2011). Finally, the three scenarios (low,medium and high carbon tax) are achieved on the basis of16groups of rates of carbontax. The impact of different carbon tax rate on the aviation industry’s carbonemissions, passenger and freight traffic and aviation fuel consumption, as well as civilaviation industry macro socio-economic variables were analyzed. Upon the resultabove, the analysis of the effect of different carbon emission reductions on marginalabatement costs and marginal losses of GDP in aviation industry were conducted also.Three innovations were achieved in this paper:(1) A carbon tax static CGE model forChina’s civil aviation industry was established;(2) A China civil aviation industrymicro-social accounting matrix which combined the energy consumption of aviationindustry was build;(3) The impact of different carbon tax on the carbon emissionsvariables of aviation industry and socio-economic variables of aviation were predicted upon the three scenarios of carbon tax rates (low, middle and high); The trend ofmarginal abatement cost and GDP losses of aviation were analyzed.The following conclusions were achieved in this paper:(1) With the increase of therate of carbon tax, the civil aviation industry emissions rate was increasedsignificantly, the emission reductions was increased accordingly. Compared withcarbon emissions reduction, the carbon tax has less effect on the traffic of aviationindustry in traffic.(2) The carbon tax has effective on the aviation industrysocioeconomic variables. With the continuous improvement of emission reductions,the total output of the civil aviation industry dropped significantly; the totalinvestment of civil aviation was increased; The income of aviation industry, thehousehold disposable income of aviation industry, the income of corporate of aviationindustry, the household savings and corporate savings of aviation were declinedsignificantly; The government revenue and government savings was grow; Moreover,the proposed carbon tax has more impact on the enterprise’s largest direct taxes thanindirect taxes and corporate tax residents; the government carbon tax revenues wasextended with the increasing of carbon tax rate.(3) The analysis of marginal impact ofcarbon emission were concluded that: With the rise of emission reductions, themarginal abatement cost increases, the marginal loss of GDP gradually increased, butthe growth rate gradually declined and end with a maximum value.(4) It issummarized that: the reasonable carbon tax rate was located in a interval of110-170yuan/ton; The reductions of carbon emission and the reductions rate of carbonemission were changed greatly before and after the interval.Upon the conclusion above, it was suggested that (1) to intensify the research onaviation carbon tax of China and prepare for the carbon tax;(2) to adjust the tax ofaviation to support the Chinese aviation industry if aviation carbon tax was levied;(3)to strengthen aviation enterprise carbon asset management, especially thedevelopment of green aviation.