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Study On The Structure, Time Fractal And Shunt Regulation Of Peak Load In Peak Area

Posted on:2016-05-30Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:T S ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:1109330491452384Subject:Tourism Management
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Chinese deep processing industry of tourism has been developing rapidly in recent years since the reform and opening up, with the change from diplomacy to economic industry and the economic to comprehensive industry. The tourism market as a new Sun-oriented industry is growing to be concerned by people, which plays an important role in flourishing economy, increasing employment and stimulating consumption. Especially after 2000 years, the development of tourism meets rapid growth with the appearance of Golden Weeks and adjustment of tourism industry policy. The development speed and quality were on an unprecedented scale. However, be subject to the weather, climate comfort degree and the system of work and relaxation, people become quite illogical when they try to decide when to go out. So people tend to choose travel in the same period and the same tourist destination, which may caused the traffic to be brought up to a standstill and left a series of unsafety problems in Golden Weeks and the high tourist season. However, Tourists flow have fall greatly since the end of the tourist season, which led to inadequate efficient demand, wasting of tourism resources, as well as an oversupply of productive powers. So, in older to maintain stable development for tourism, and alleviate the contradiction between the high tourism season and the low tourism season is imminent. It is not only a research subject for the academic research, but also provides the basis for planning of tourism development, development of tourism project, tourism marketing and scenic spot management. This article adopts document analysis method, regression analysis method, and wavelet analysis method with the natural landscape type scenic spot Zhangjiajie and the historical culture scenic spot Fenghuang ancient town as the case, and analyses the characteristics and influence factors of "Peak-Forest" structure, fractal characteristics and regulating mechanism of tourist. The results as follows:Firstly, such a critique argues from the character of "Peak-Forest" structure, there were commandments of the two kinds of different scienic spots. From the tourism development of the two kinds of different types of tourism destination, the tourist flow changed during the year was the graceful "Peak-Forest" structure characteristics, domestic tourist flow changes in weeks, months and seasons were obvious rules to follow, and to show the similarity, symmetry, anti symmetry characteristic and anti seasonal obvious. "Peak-Forest" structure on the map a shape of jagged little peak corresponded to "the two-day weekend" and holiday, tourist flow changes with a week by week as the basic unit, and combined into a month by month, and then combined into seasons and years, relate to each other. The peak season of domestic tourism lasted longer, with the accelerating period such as May Day and Golden Week of National Day, which made a harmonious and graceful "Peak-Forest" structure. Different from the domestic tourism, overseas tourist flow change characteristics of the week was not obvious, because the overseas tourists once into the tourism destination was the holiday, so its travel had certain randomness. Furthermore the change of overseas tourist flow changes in months and seasons also showed distinct differences, the seasonal intensity index of overseas tourist flow was greater than that of the domestic tourist flow, seasonal changes in the larger and the annual distribution was uneven.Secondly, "Peak-Forest" structure was presented by the analysis of fractal characteristics. The regularity, periodicity and differences were reflected clearly at different times during the year. According to the characters of tourist during the year, this paper introduced the fractal theory and calculates the fractal dimension, to explore the tourists change over time scales and its influencing factors. The changes of domestic tourists existed periodic variation characteristics in seven days as time unit, and the weekly change was the most fundamental. Weekly changes combined into monthly and seasonal changes and then yearly changes. Tourists tended to balance in most time because of the Large-scale tourists. But, it was still more serious that the tourists were concentrated in the Golden Week and rush hour during peak season. It showed that there were never weekly changes in a whole year but in month and season. The phenomenon still existed that overseas tourist were concentrated during peak season, though the middle rank of tourists get increased and peak season get longer year by year. There was a big difference between its good times and its slack times for the Zipf-value, which was also the most reason, caused the non-balanced distribution of overseas tourists.Thirdly, as there were many factors affect tourists in a year, this paper constructed the conceptual model, to approach the basic reason and system of the main factors that influenced the tourist during the year and the difference between overseas tourist and domestic tourist during the year. The results showed that there were much factors influence the overseas tourist flow and domestic tourist flow during the year, such as the weather and climate comfort, emergencies, and the tourism destination marketing activities. The results showed:among all the factors, the variation of overseas tourists in a year was mainly affected by the weather and climate change, and the ten-day index of climatic coefficient of elasticity was larger than domestic tourist. As distinct from overseas tourism, weather and climate changes, working and recreation system were the major factors which lead to domestic tourist changes. Because the system of work and relaxation for people, the double cease day, golden week and summer vacation of students were formed which lead to the prosperity of the economy in the holiday. People’s work and leisure systems had a profound effect on the high tousism season and the low tourism season. The high season improved, while the low tourist season relented with the transformation from single holiday, weekends, and Golden Week. Different crisis also had effect on tourist from time and extend. Most internationally-known scenic spots had an obvious anti periodicity effect and rebound feature on the heels of crisis. With the rapid economical development, domestic tourism had strong ascending inertia and rebound ability on the heels of crisis, but the overseas tourism affected by information asymmetry is more vulnerable.Fourthly, compared the space-time evolution of tourist flow with tourism environmental capacity, the architecture of space-time threshold platform and controlling issue system were established for trimmed tourist flow. The controlling for tourists was a dynamic process which needed to calculate the capacity of tourism environment and determine a reasonable interval travel from space and time to accommodate tourists. So, the establishing of space-time model was very reasonable, which made the regulation of tourist flow more scientific and reasonable. From the study on the time and spatial dynamic changes of the tourist flow, we can see that Zhangjiajie should strengthen the expedite tourist capability of the ropeway, elevator and the scenic spots along it, such as Jinbianxi, Bridge No.1, Ten-mileGallery, Shilihualang, Yubifeng, Xiannvsanhua, etc. There were Forty-six days cry for cutting down on the Golden Week in May and October and summer vacation in June to August. However, there were Sixty-nine days failing to come up to the mark for escalating on the low tourism season in December, January, and February. Fenghuang ancient town should strengthen spatial control in ancient town, such as the home of Shen Congwen, the home of Xiong Xiling, Ancient town’s museum, Yang Jia ancestral temple, Hongqiao, Boating on the Tuojiang, etc. There were Twenty-four days cry for cutting down on the Golden Week in May and October, summer vacation from June to August and a small part from low season to high season. However, there were Sixty-six days failing to come up to the mark for escalating on the low season. Finally, tackling the problem from the way of system level, the supply and demand of tourism and the price, this paper provides some controlling issues for planning of tourism development, the development of tourism project, tourism marketing and the management of scenic spot.The innovation of the dissertation was indicated as follows:Firstly, on the basis of the study which from yearly and seasonal, this paper improved the model horizontal resolution furtherly, to see the characteristics of "peak-forest" structure minutely and clearly. The high-resolution analysis of time-varying characteristics of tourists flow was set day by day, with the change from the weekly, monthly and seasonal time scales changes begin. This study also explored the overseas tourist flow and domestic tourist flow, and the differences between mountain-water scenic spot and historical cultural scenic spot as well.Secondly, in the discussion of the factors affecting tourist changes day by day, a model of evaluation on the climate affecting tourist flow during the year was further established, with the weight of the THK WCFk ICH got by depth method of analysis and expert evaluation. The number of the sample was increased from twelve to Thirty-six. Tourists changed in months were converted to Ten-day for more exact measurement of discourse the factors affecting changes of tourists during the year in high time resolution, in older to improve its fining and forecasting accuracy and keep the losses to a minimum when imperceptible changed during the year.Thirdly, Find out the crisis influence mechanism of unexpected events on tourist flow. The impact of crisis on the tourist flow can be clearly reflected in the month. To remodel the year into the month, this paper analyzed the influences of crises on tourist flow by using monthly index on the tourism background trend line in high time resolution. This paper also discussed the main difference between overseas tourist flow and domestic tourist flow and the discrepancy between two diffrernt scenic spots.Fourthly, the existing researches on the fractal characteristics of tourist flow had always centered about the tourism scenic spots systems. There were few researches on the changes of tourists day by day with wavelet, and the comparison of fractal characteristics between domestic and overseas tourism. So, in the discussion of the fractal characteristics of tourists flow, the wavelets analysis used to detect the changes of overseas tourist flow and domestic tourist flow day by day in different scenic spot and different time.Fifthly, in the discussion of the tourism environment capacity and controlling issue, this essay avoided talking about the main capacity and discusses the controlling issue for tourist, compared the space-time evolution of tourist flow with tourism environmental capacity, the architecture of space-time threshold platform and controlling issue system were established for trimmed tourist flow.
Keywords/Search Tags:Hot scenic spots, "Peak-Forest" structure, Reasons analysis, Controlling issue
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