A Predicative Analysis On The Macro-and Microscopic Demand For Water Conservancy In China's Economic Development

This dissertation is to address the issue of the interrelationship between China's economic development and water conservancy in the 21st century. My study is based upon the fundamental viewpoints of sustainable development and the system theory. The ultimate goal for this study is to propose a predicative analysis on the problematics of water conservancy in China's current economic development from both the macro-and microscopic perspectives. To begin with,from a macroscopic perspective,this project discusses the structural development of water conservancy, namely, the macroscopic structure of network, the medium-scopic structure of combination,and the microscopic structure of entity. In this light,this study proposes the structural network of water conservancy in the need of China's economic development,consisting of point (urban water conservancy), line (industrial water conservancy), and dimension (water conservancy in the river basin areas). On this basis,this study proposes the dynamic model of the demand for water resource in China's economic development within the framework of urban economics,industrial economics and regional economics. My analysis centers upon the issues of urbanization,industrialization,industrial restructuring,regional economic development and their dynamic interraction with the demand for water resource. My ultimate goal is to propose a dynamic system of water conservancy within the framework of China's economic development. To make my analysis more pragmatic,a simulative experimentation is made to put forward a predicative data analysis on the demand for water resource in China's economic development, which believe,will provide a constructive reference for the decision-making and policy-making for China's water conservancy in the 21st century.Secondly,from a microscopic perspective,my project adopts the theory and methodology of financial economics to offer a predicative analysis on the microscopic entity of water conservancy. On this basis, my study evaluates the functionality of the hydraulic engineering projects under construction and/or in blueprint (especially the large-scaled and medium-scaled ones) within the framework of China's sustainable development,which includes their financial operation, economic potentiality,and management efficiency. In terms of predicative analysis,my project employs the methods of estimating investment capital fund and optimal operative expenditure. A case study on Xiaolangdi Hydraulic Terminal,one of the largest-scaled hydraulic engineering projects under construction in China,is made to illustrate the theoretical and methodological approaches that have been discussed throughout this study. My present research project is ultimately aimed to provide the academic reference for the policy-making in terms of the microscopic operation of water conservancy and of the efficient operation of the large- and medium-scaled hydraulic engineering projects in contemporary China.