Study Of Logistical Risk Analysis And Management Of The Large Project

Nanshuibeidiao Midline Project is the very large project in China, which will be constructed to channel off the water from South to North through several drainage areas. Although HSNMP (Heibei Section of the Nanshuibeidiao Midline Project) is the part of the Nanshuibeidiao Midline Project, the span of it is so long, construction management is so difficult and the supply of materials is so inconvenient that the risks of time, quality and investment are very high. In order to solve the problems and reduce the risks mentioned above, the methods of System Engineering and Operational Research were applied to optimize and design the materials supply chain and the integrated logistical management model, which can be used to ensure the supply of the materials, was established. The research work done by the author was illustrated as below:1. The demand plan of the logistical management of the HSNMP was studied and its risks were analyzed. In the dissertation, the PERT-based Multi-Resource Optimizing Model was applied in order to analyze the risks of the demand plan of the construction materials, such as cement and steel, in the HSNMP. Through the model, the optimized materials supply plan based on the certain completion risk can be obtained as the demand plan of the future logistical management. 2. The location of distribution center used for storing and distributing the steel and cement for the HSNMP was optimized and designed on the base of GIS (Geographic Information System), and the DSS (Decision-making Support System) used for optimizing the location of the distribution center was also developed.3. The vehicle routing used for supplying the cement and steel for the HSNMP was optimized through the ant algorithm, which is a popular and efficient algorithm used to solve the combinatorial optimization problems, such as TSP (Traveling Salesman Problems).4. After optimizing the location of the distribution center and the vehicle routing, the risks of inventory management were analyzed through the simulation. In this dissertation, the Bayes Risk Decision-making Engineering was introduced in order to rectify the base-stock in the multi-product inventory model.5. The Agent-based information system for the HSNMP was designed to coordinate and improve the activities in the materials supply chain. The building architect and network structure of the information system were set up in the dissertation.