Study Of Vulnerability And Optimization Control Of Economic Development In West China

This dissertation studies the vulnerability and optimization control of economic development in west China and seeks a new way for west development. The main contents as following:1．For posterior study, the dissertation summarizes the related achievement, backdates the history of regional economic practice in China since 1949 and sums up the experience how other countries exploited undeveloped regions. 2．Base on the achievement of nature system and humanities system, the connotation and definition of vulnerability of regional economy development is put forward. The dissertation also analyses the connection between vulnerability and sustainable development, and establishes a theory model to analyse and evaluate the vulnerability of regional economy development from three aspects, which are intramural instability, sensitivity to the changing of exterior economic conditions and loss degree caused by the changed exterior economic conditions. The model is used to study the vulnerability of economic development in west China: (1) The intramural instability is proved by the estimation of regional disparities; (2) The characteristic of industrial structure and hierarchical DEA(Date Envelopment Analysis) efficiency of regional investment, which is that economy increasing owes to funds quantity and the efficiency is low but its scale benefit increases by degrees, proves the sensitivity of regional economy to the changing of exterior economic conditions in west China. At the same time, the relation between industrial structure and hierarchical DEA efficiency of regional investment is explained; (3) The increasing loss degree caused by the changed exterior economic conditions is estimated by the extent of capital outflow and brain drain. The three items shows that the economic development in west China is very vulnerable.3．This dissertation introduces the origin and development of fractal theory, summarizes its main content, recommends fractal time series in economic system and Hurst exponent and how to calculate Hurst exponent by R/S analysis. From the intramural instability of the economic development in west China, this dissertation analyses and forecasts the trend of vulnerability and compares it with the regional disparities in some countries, which used to reform economy severely or have great regional economy disparities. The conclusion, on which the government must keep its eyes, is the vulnerability will accelerate without new regional economy policy.4．The optimization control of economic development must be founded on market adjusting and government control and the new development stratagem should aim at reducing the vulnerability in west China, namely, solving primarily the problem of regional disparities in order to decrease development instability, optimizing industrial structure and heightening the efficiency of investment in order to reduce the sensitivity to the changing of exterior economic conditions, broadening financing channel and strengthening human capital development in order to lessen the loss degree caused by capital outflow and brain drain. ...