Study On Real Estate Periodical Fluctuation

In nearly ten years, the civil real estate market has experienced great changes, it developed from germination to grandness. But this course is not calm, and it is fluctuant. To this fluctuant phenomenon, this paper studied the theory of real estate periodical fluctuation. Studying this theory has not only academic significance but also practical significance. So this paper made ShangHai real estate market as an example, use real estate periodical theory, research the real estate fluctuation.The main study included whether ShangHai real estate exists the periodical fluctuation , what are the effects, factors and contents real estate periodical fluctuation, and what is the trend of the fluctuation of ShangHai real estate. So the author made ShangHai real estate market as an example, and made use of the fact analysis for ShangHai real estate in general, importantly discussed the supple and demand of the ShangHai real estate market.In the research of real estate periodical fluctuation, this paper use the theory of economical , real estate economical cycle, Diffusion Index., he factors which effect the real estate fluctuation, conduction mechanism, the correlation between the supple and demand and the boom cycle theory of real estate to the fact analysis for ShangHai real estate.In the research, this paper described the wave graph by Diffusion Index; and in the fact analysis for the supple and demand of ShangHai real estate market, this paper used the method of multiple regression, simulate the expression of supply and demand. On the basis of the analysis of supply and demand, this paper also analyzed the price fluctuation and use the price cobweb model; and in the research of the trend of real estate periodical fluctuation, this paper use the method of compartmentalizing the boom status. By the fact analysis for ShangHai real estate, this paper draw a conclusion that ShangHai real estate exist the periodical fluctuation, and describe the wave graph by Diffusion Index. In the analysis for the supple and demand of ShangHai real estate market, this paper draw a conclusion that the price cobweb model of ShangHai real estate is diffused, and that the cobweb model is not convergent. At the same time, by the research of the fluctuation trend, this paper draw the conclusion that ShangHai real estate will keep on developing in near years, but the pace will decrease. According to the research of the ShangHai real estate market and the conclusion, this paper draw the conclusion that the development of the real estate market is not successful, it exists the periodical fluctuation, and the civil real estate market will keep on developing in near years.