| This paper makes a theoretical and empirical study on enterprise's strategic risk (ESR for short) based on combination of strategy management, risk theory, microeconomics, industry economics, game theory, psychology, leadership theory, and complexity science. The study is developed in three aspects: first, forming mechanism of ESR; second, management theory and means of ESR; third, empirical analysis on ESR. Based on the study, this article tries to establish a systematic theory framework on ESR research, and supply a thinking path and reference for ESR identification, early-warning. Generally, this paper is divided into four parts: definition of ESR, forming mechanism, ESR management, and empirical analysis on ESR, the details are as follows:1 Definition of ESR. First, this article summarizes concepts of enterprise, strategy, risk, second, strategic risk factors are derived from necessity of strategy success, finally, strategic risk is defined as follows: the possibility that an enterprise can not fulfill its strategy goals because certain required qualifications do not meet the needs which ensure the success of strategy.2 Forming mechanism of ESR. First, this paper discusses relationship between market failure and ESR. Market failure here is an expanded concept including commerce cycle, finance crisis, economy foam, government failure, deterioration of industrial organization, worsening of competing and so on. It focuses on how government failure, deterioration of industrial organization and worsening of competing lead to ESR. Second, this paper, from the angle of enterprise resource and ability, makes a deep study on the relationship between enterprise resource, ability and ESR. It focuses on how low resource barriers, resource risk, enterprise capacity gap, resource transition system lead to ESR. Finally, entrepreneur weakness and ESR are discussed. It mainly consists of theory of entrepreneur weakness, weakness behaving form, dynamics and how the weakness result in ESR. Such things as entrepreneur, negative pressure, inducement, ability paling, culture ecdysis, fluctuation of personality heterogeneity are deeply studied.3 Management research of ESR. First, it studies identification and measurement of ESR. The following things are included: (1) construction of influencing factors model and structure system. (2) Identifying thinking path and steps are presented. (3) Distributions of ESR and its loss are identified via environment scanning theory and method. (4) Strategic core factors are identified by the least shearing collection theory.(5) ESRs are measured by the, means of fuzz mathematics and information theory. Second, early warning system and model are constructed. Two things are included: (1) ESR early warning thinking path, system and flat are presented. (2) Heat sensitive trigger and BP neutral network are presented. Finally, ESR control, defending and strategy turn-around are studied. Three things are comprised: (1) ESR control policies are presented based on the chaos theory inducement and reasoning such as "cycle parameters tiny tangling" and "outsourcing cycle forcing". (2) ESR defending theory and method are presented based on construction of strategy flexibility. Here, resource flexibility, core competence, organization flexibility, and system flexibility are focuses to be studied. (3) Strategy turn-around theory and method based on the analysis of strategic options are presented.4 Empirical analysis of ESR. (1) This paper makes a deep research on 40 plus world-famous companies, focuses on their successes and failures, and proves the research result by case inducement. (2) A real company, Guangxi yanghe investment co,. Ltd. where the author worked for 6 months, is. presented and its ESRs are measured, the result is that the ESR is on middle level. (3) Strategy evolution of Legend group is analyzed to demonstrate how a company implements ESR control, defending and eluding.In the end, a summary and future research prospect are given.
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