Growth Cycle Of Recession And Restructuring

Waning of the old industrial base of the Northeast China reflects on industrial structure is that change of industrial structure is rigid, which is the superficies of the problem, and is also the reason of the problem. The ultimate reason of the rigidity of industrial structure change is on the system, which is the common idea of scholars and statesmen. So they are premises that market system must be cultivated and perfected, the state-owned system be changed and multi-ownship be built, entire open factors markets be built and enterprise organization structure be upgraded.Dynamic study is done in this paper, and the range is from Japanese rule time to nonce, which is about seventy years, and analysis of the development of industrial structure after reform and opening up is particular much more. The reason why choosing so long time as analyzing range is to find the inevitability of subsequent industrial structure change. Because the study is dynamic, some conclusions of this paper are perhaps difficult to get from static or comparative static study:1. The main problem of current industrial structure in the Northeast China is not reflecting on the production value structure of three industrial structures far away from "the standard structure". Comparing to per capital GDP, the production value structure is something of according to the law, its inefficiency is that three industrial structures development is on low level. One of the characteristics of the Northeast China is whose per capital fiscal income is over average of the whole country, but whose resident per capital income is in the rear. The reason of which is about empty high level of industrial structure.2. Analysis of the relation between the degree of the industrial structure change and the economic growth from 1982 to 2003 told us that the both are not related basically. Two hypothesizes are put forward to, one is because that the industrial structure changed lowly, the other is the contribution of the three industrial structure change to the economic growth changing too acutely, which declined the influence. And the convincing data used in the text to confirm the two hypothesizes.3. The Northeast China has been taking grate efforts to change the industrial structure which looked short of energy, but the effect is very poor. Heavy industry has still expanded on low level, the development of the offspring industries is very limited, few newly industries have increased, and the traditional industries have waned. Taking the equipment manufacturing industry as the example, most kinds of indices appeared that it has little competitiveness. Because of restricted by resource and not...