On The Certainty And Uncertainty Of The U.S. Strategy In Central Asia

The U.S. strategy towards Central Asia features both obvious certainty and apparent uncertainty. From a macro and overall perspective, the United States'Central Asia strategy since the end of the Cold War has experienced a transition from uncertainty to certainty in a relatively evolutionary spiral. In the U.S. foreign policy strategy, national interests and values always extend support to each other. On the whole, national interests considerations prevail. However, there are times when values figure more prominently due the president's values and changes in the U.S. security strategy. Naturally, realism and pragmatism often prevailed ultimately. U.S. strategic goals in Central Asia have always prioritized security interests, geopolitical interests, energy interests and "tangible national interest". Meanwhile, "intangible national interests" like soft power and values have been accorded secondary attention.U.S. fundamental strategic objectives carry similarities and relative continuity. Their certainty outweighs uncertainty. The basic tenet of U.S. strategy towards in Central Asia is characterized by similarity and coordination. However, a series of internal and external constraints including decision-making processes in the U.S. the president's personal preferences, the Central Asia's maneuvering among great powers, shifts in the international situation and changes in U.S. power have created numerous uncertainties in the U.S. strategy towards Central Asia. As a consequence, at different stages, the U.S. Central Asia strategy showed significant differences, inconsistency and even contradictions. U.S. strategy towards the Central Asia has produced multiple results, which, in turn, gave rise to new uncertainties and hinder further implementation of the U.S. Central Asia strategy. From time to time, the U.S. government has to make difficult choices, reflect on and improve its policies. At different times, different U.S. administrations'Central Asia strategy place different emphasis on realism and idealism. This approach has resulted in certainty, uncertainty and the compromise of what is in nature a pragmatic diplomacy foreign policy. In relative terms, the U.S. strategy towards Central Asia tends to be characterized by a combination of realism and certainty. Its idealistic elements in the form of value-based foreign policy and multilateralism may face or cause more uncertainty, forcing the United States to keep choosing between security and democracy. Ultimately, the balancing act often ends up being tilted in favor of realism or pragmatism. It is not easy to define the U.S. administration's strategy toward Central Asia along the lines of idealism or realism, certainty or uncertainty. Often such characterization is relative and dynamic.