The Effect Of The Fertility Policy On The Rural Sex Ratio Imbalance

In the past 30 years,along with the implementation and improvement of the fertility policy,and with the rapid economic and social development since the reform and opening up,fertility behavior of Chinese families has also been transformed,fertility rate continue to decline rapidly,but China's population structure appears a series of imbalance in development.The higher Sex ratio at birth is one of the most significant changes in characteristics of the population structure.According to the latest annual Statistical Yearbook data in 2014,although China's sex ratio at birth has been achieved Sixth decrease,but overall level remains too high.Sex ratio at birth is still one of the demographic structure problem which need to solve in the future,the imbalance of sex ratio at birth is not only purely a demographic imbalance issue,but also destined to become a road obstruction of the social and economic development sectors.Now,fertility policy is on adjustment,a separate new two-child policy was just been implied,this paper aim to do empirical research on the effect of one child policy on the sex ratio at birth,particularly in rural areas.Measuring the impact of differences in fertility policy on the sex ratio at birth,will be well worth researching and have certain practical value.Firstly,in use of macroeconomic data,we analyze the overall characteristics of the current sex ratio at birth,and find the differences between urban and rural areas and the parity characteristics,from the analysis we gain an understanding of China's sex ratio at birth on the macro level.After that,through sorting the development of China's one-child policy context,we get the point that one-child policy has taken on different characteristics for different ethnic groups constraints,in use of this feature as a starting point,based on the theoretical mechanism analysis of the one-child policy to influence the sex ratio at birth,this paper selects CHNS data of households in the provinces of microscopic,in the use of the different characteristics of the Han and minority policy on fertility,using difference in differential analysis to study the effect of one-child policy on sex ratio at birth.We have launched a series of studies to obtain the results of the following aspects:(1)By using the CHNS data of households in the provinces of microscopic,in the use of the different characteristics of the Han and minority policy on fertility,using difference in differential analysis to study the effect of one-child policy on sex ratio at birth.The main conclusions are as follows:the one-child policy is indeed a major cause of the imbalances of China's sex ratio at birth in rural areas.About 78.5 percent of the rural sex ratio at birth increase in 1980s can be explained by the one-child policy.Meanwhile,the policy play an important role in the imbalance of sex ratio at birth since 1990.The one child policy plays a different role for families at different times of fetal sex selection,in the dual role of the one child policy and son preference,many families carry on sex selection at their first child,which is one of the main causes of China's rural sex ratio at birth imbalances;for the two child family,gender decision are more biased on gender balance,while for more children at high birth order,the influence of one-child policy is more significant,causing serious sex ratio at birth imbalance.(2)In order to further tap how the fertility policy differences affect sex ratio at birth,the paper uses data CHNS communities of 2000 to match micro household data,using descriptive analysis and Logistics empirical model of the differences between the policies,especially how the differences between "one and a half child " policy and one-child policy affect features of the rural sex ratio at birth.The main conclusions are as follows:different types of policies and policy strength differences will have impact on the sex ratio at birth,"one and a half child" policy compared to the one-child policy weakens the sex ratio at the first birth of the family,but greatly strengthened the second child sex ratio,and the more stringent policy areas,the contribution of policies on Gender Imbalance is more highlight,in addition,our research also found in this chapter that the highest educational level of parents and occupational classification will affect the sex ratio at birth to some extent,parents working in the public sectors will strengthen its gender selection,increasing the sex ratio to some level.(3)Finally,the article summarizes the results of the study,and on the basis of the conclusion,we give possible measures for the mitigation of Birth Gender Imbalance.Policies recommended to reduce birth sex selection and ease Birth Gender Imbalance are:strengthen the construction of rural social security measures;to enhance the level of national education in rural areas;and to continue to contribute to speeding up urbanization.And the article also adjusts to the new two-child policy-"two separate child" policy has been analyzed.In studying of the background and the necessity of the policy change,we analyze the actual population which this new policy has effect on,and the policy effect on urban and rural areas sex ratio at birth were predicted and analyzed,we predict that the policy is theoretically contribute to alleviate the urban sex ratio imbalance to some extent and help weaken the "one and a half child " policy which has led to an imbalance of sex ratio at birth of the second child in rural areas.