From Aging Of Population To Aging Of The Aged

This is a paper of probative Study about demographic aging (generally, we call it population aging or aging of population) combining with the theory and reality. Just as we all know that the "senior boom" or "geronitic boom" of population aging are now coming all over the world while the "baby boom" of population growth are still not vanished completely. Such situation has been noticed and raising a variety of arguments and discussions.About the paper I present here, there is a fundamental premise before discussing: taking a skeptical attitude to the concept, principle and popular views of population aging, of course, no matter what we think, it is true that the number and percentage of global older people increase rapidly, however, we still don't know much about the process and change of population aging itself.This study will be based on demographic perspective at the end of century, having a detail discussion about popular views of population aging combining with the theory and reality. I consider that population aging is one of a demographic consequence during demographic transition, with the end of demographic transition, both the cause and effect of population aging will be changed greatly. This change was not be noticed by west demographers who had established the classical transition theory, as well as not be meet to the past aspect of aging. Because of this, the traditional views and measures of population aging will be faced the challenge at present. As a discussion, I propose a new concept of "Post-demographic transition" based on classical population transition, and take so called "aging of the aged" replacing aging of population, In order to interpret population aging of 21 century. The main opinions are as follow:(a) While classical demographic transition goes into the stage of "low stationary", the change of mortality is not remain at a low level, it begins rising gradually from its bottom, and higher than that of fertility, it causes a negative growth of population in most of developed countries, this situation, according to projection, will be continued at least a half century in the future. Compare with the first transition (means "classical transition") which causes a positive growth of population, it is much difference to the second transition (means "Post-demographic transition") which causes a negative growth. In my opinion, it is just one of an essential reason in the process of population aging to aging of the aged at century-cross. Furthermore, I find there are three characteristics in the post-demographic transition: low fertility; negative growth and aging of the aged, and just those three characteristics develop such a new aspect of post-demographic transition, meanwhile, base on post-demographic transition, they have connection and difference as well among those three characteristics.(b) Aging of population and aging of the aged are both relative and different, there are three aspect: (i) aging of the aged better expresses the original meaning of "the increase of median age or mean age " of population aging; (ii) aging of the aged is a kind of direct aging of population when the older people itself be aging, in other words, aging of the aged is a kind of "absolute aging" or "aging at the apex of pyramid" caused by mortality-dominated; (iii) aging of the aged brings people a longer life, so we may call it be "quality aging". According to my opinion as above, I consider that the aging of the aged is an inevitable outcome when the aging of population develop a relative high stage, it tells us that, at one hand, the situation of population aging have been deepen more than before, at the other hand, it indicates that the situation of population aging is or has been changed. Meanwhile, this paper also discusses how to confirm the demarcation lines from aging of population to aging of the aged. (c) Facing to 21 century, that of our thinking and knowledge about population aging must be outdate with the global fertility decline, and a kind of the population...