Study Of Regional Population Risk Management And Control System

As the principal part of production and social life, population development has its own regulations. On the one hand, the process of population development shows its character of adaptation to social conditions, all of the transformations of birthrate, mortality and migration are connected with the productivity and the status of society, economy, resources and environment. On the other hand, as a result of the characteristics of accumulation and gradual evolvement of population development, population's status cannot be rectified to the movement of social and economic conditions immediately. The inertia and lag adjustment of population development induce some population problem frequently, and so the research about population problems is required for taking precautions.Accompany with risk in the process of population development, its expressional forms are diverse in different stages. Population safety and Population risk are two profiles of the same problem. All in all, the ideology of population safety has transformed from survival to development, it has been an important proportion of nation safety.Based on the viewpoint of broad population, this dissertation begins with the goal of population development safely, analyzes the relationship between main factors of population, and the relationship between population and other sub- systems, such as society, economy, resources and environment, according to the thoughtway of interior and exterior, studying the source, manifestation, latent endanger of population risk and the possible adaptive strategies, seeks to establish the research system of "regional population risk management and control". This dissertation falls into 8 chapters: 1. exordium; 2. the connotation and research in quo of population safety; 3. the establishment of the system of regional population risk management; 4. measurement and assessment of regional population risk; 5. population scenario analysis and simulation of Shanghai; 6. identifying and primary evaluation of population risk in Shanghai; 7. vulnerability assessment of population development in Shanghai; 8. main conclusions and adaptive strategies. This dissertation adoptsconjoint techniques, such as theoretic and experiential analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis, establishes a full-scale system of regional population risk management and control.This dissertation leads into some new concepts, such as pressure, vulnerability and resilience...etc., sets up the basic frame of the system of regional population risk management and control, adopts the combined research skill of static analysis and dynamic analysis, establishes population risk evaluation model, and based on the basic principle of "pressure- state- response" model (PSR Model), erects the indicator system of population risk evaluation and monitoring. This dissertation not only inquiries into the general raw of regional population risk management and control, it also takes Shanghai as an example, simulates its population evolvement under the condition of "half closing, half opening" system, enters into potential risk, and brings forward assorted adaptive strategies to ward off all the diverse and complicated risk.Shanghai, the biggest city in China, not only has the largest population scale and the highest population density, it is also the earliest district in population transformation and has the highest ageing degree. Therefore, a study on population risk control and safe development of Shanghai, is of advanced significance for China, especially for other cities with similar tendency. Through a long term of accumulation, the concurrence situation of multifold risks has come into being in Shanghai, including risk of population scale, structure, distribution, diathesis, pressure to resources and environment, pressure to employment, social polarization and disaster prevention, but it is possible to quest for relative safe form of population development and take on some resilience by making great efforts in policy and non-policy areas.In addition to the innovation of research thoughtway and methods, this dissertation also puts forward some theory and viewpoints with great originality:â‘  Definite the connotation of population safety and population risk demonstrably, generalize the positive feedback characteristics of population risk, such as accumulation, transfer between generations, lag adjustment and non-reversibility.â‘¡This dissertation deems that, the long-range goal of Shanghai population development should be orientated in stable or stationary population with optimal scale and balanced structure. We not only considers its result, that is to say, when the stable or stationary population goal is realized, whether the population scale goes beyond thecarrying capacity of resources and environment and the population structure adapts with the requirement of labor forces for social and economic development, whether the population structure accommodates the service ability that hygiene, education and social security can provide. We should pay much more attention to its process, namely, in the evolvement to stable population, whether the risk outruns the carrying capacity that society, economy, resources and environment can support, especially the acceptance ability of system and policy.â‘¢ Different benefits corps have different requirements, the government, as the spokesperson of the community benefits, must have conduct actively to control the population risk. Individuals or families usually measure the population risk from the angle of micro view, carrying on the worth judgment and behaviors choice according to the current condition and feeling, it is not surely to be rational for the integration of the public. The government must hold the whole situation in hand, take precautions to constitute policies and systems founded on macro population state, social and economic development situation, resources and environment conditions. To some extent, the effects of population risk control depend on government's attitude and ability to manage population risk, and the behavior adjustment and choices with responsibility of the public.