Analyze The Industrial Structure In China Based On Dynamic Imput-output Model

The growth of economy is closely related to the rationalization of industrial structure. The rationalization of the industrial structure can bring the effect of structure in order to promote the regional economic growth. The rationalization of industrial structure and the coordinating development of the industry are the basic premise and important safeguard of the sustained, rapid and healthy development of economy. With the development of economy, there will be corresponding changes in industrial structure, and this will have a orderly phase, that is to say, the process of economic development is the process of industrial structure. To achieve a strategic shift in industrial structure, we must study the association of various industrial sectors, fully consider the specific conditions for development, determine the objectives of the industrial structure adjustment, take the strong countermeasures to promote the achievement of the objective of the industrial structure. The regulation and control of the development goals and process of the industrial structure is achieved by the regulation and control of economic parameters such as investment orientation, consumption propensity, investment structure and consumption structure. In these economic parameters, consumption propensity and consumption structure have highly rigid and the economic policies have little influence on them. But the investment orientation and the investment structure often have a very sensitive reflection to the economic policies, and have a large space conditioning. The investment trends and the investment structure have the largest impact on the investment structure, especially the industrial investment. The analysis of China's industrial structure must be based on the accurate quantitative analysis.Taking the basic conditions of tertiary industry development as a starting point, The paper analyzes the feature of China's industrial structure, and according to the calculated middle demand rate and middle output rate divides all industrial sectors into intermediate products, intermediate basic industries, final demand and final demand-oriented basic industries. Then the paper analyzes and compares various industrial sectors sensitivity coefficient, influence factors, production factors and demand-induced dependence coefficient on the industrial sector to carry on association analysis, and the paper points out that there are too many problems such as inconsistent structure and unreasonable industry mix in China's industrial structure.The paper studies the restraint and influence relationship on industrial investment and industrial structure from theoretical analysis and empirical research. The industrial investment affects industrial structure by investment goods demand, fix assets, technological progress and industrial innovation. The industrial structure affects industrial investment by investment goods'supplying quantity and structure, and industrial structure affects industrial investment by social demand. Then used the declaratory data by National Bureau of Statistics to carry on quantitative validation of theory relationship.According to the problems of Leontief dynamic input-out model, the paper introduces income determination theory of macroeconomics to Leontief static input-output model, sets up a dynamic variable structure controlled input-output model which can link industrial structure, investment structure, investment propensity, consumption propensity together and describe the process of industrial change with the investment structure, investment propensity and consumption propensity.Based on the dynamic variable structure controlled input-output model, it collects the data of 17 industrial sectors in China, estimates parameters of the model, gives specific form of dynamic variable structure controlled input-output model about 17 industrial sectors in China and does statistical and econometrics tests. Using the established model,it analyses the impact of investment propensity, consumption propensity, investment structure to industrial structure, and forecasts the trends and processes of industrial structure in China.Combined with industrial promotion policy, It proposes Industrial restructuring goals, and designs the expected industrial structure of China based on standard structure of chenery and industrial structure of United States, Japan and other developed countries. From developing primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry harmoniously, strengthening basic industries, highlighting the leading industry and foster new industries and enhance our industry's ability of self-development and innovation,It also proposes some Industrial restructuring suggestions such as reducing investment propensity to improve macro-control system of investment and increases consumption propensity to the role of consumption played on economics.