Optimization And Simulation On Industrial Structure Of Heilongjiang Province

The industry is considered as the foundation of a national economy. Contemporary economy growth is fundamentally driven by industrial structure. In the process of economy development, growth, both in population and in production are always accompanied by a distinct movement in Industrial composition and in productive resources that used in different industries. Economic growth keeps pace with structural transfer. How to realize a sustainable economic growth by means of industrial structure optimization has been a focus for governments at all levels. Under great influence of economic crisis, China raised revitalization plan of ten industries. Industrial structure optimization has been regarded as one of measures to deal with economic crisis. It is an urgent issues for Heilongjiang Province that how to use the opportunity of industrial revitalization plan and how to change crisis into opportunity. Therefore, study Industrial structure optimization and simulation has great academic significance and practical meaning to promote Industrial structure upgrading and enhance the core competitiveness of Industrial and promote economy growth.The industry adjustment and optimization is a dynamic process. Therefore, it has different requirements under different economic development conditions. This dissertation is on the basis of industrial structure current conditions in Heilongjiang, in which the dissertation establishes a simulation and optimization model of industrial structure by means of the theories and methods in econometrics, system dynamics and economic cybernetics in order to find out the path to win industrial adjustment in Heilongjiang. Firstly, the dissertation analyses what influence on industrial structure optimization and upgrading and displays a variable model from the enterprise perspective. The dissertation determines status of Heilongjinag Province's Industrial structure from rationalization and upgrading aspects. Secondly, this dissertation detects the current conditions of industrial structure in Heilongjiang through the analysis of the current situation in three industries and the internal structures within different industries. The dissertation discovers both output value, employment structure in three industries and the internal industrial structure in different industries respectively, there are some unreasonable phenomena. The dissertation has comparative analysis with domestic provinces. Furthermore, the Industrial structure in Heilongjiang Province had a strong convergent inclination with domestic provinces, which weakened its core competitiveness. Then, an industrial structure model is established by means of econometrics according to statistic data in Heilongjiang to analyse the effectiveness in structure change. Using input-output table, the dissertation builds optimization model of Industrial structure, sets four goal functions: economic growth, full employment, energy consumption and pollution control. The dissertation calculates optimization Industrial structure, and puts forward direction to upgrading Industrial structure of Heilongjiang Province. According the results of the study, the dissertation sets up an industrial structure system simulation model by using theories and methods in econometrics, system dynamics and economic cybernetics. Furthermore, the dissertation analyses the causes that impact on industrial structure transformation by introducing Cobb—Douglas production function and establishes a system dynamic simulation model in which systematic activity is simulated by optimizing exogenous parameters. The Industrial structure in Heilongjiang has gradually headed for a reasonable direction, however, the adjusted pace is relatively slow based on its current policy, especially slow in the secondary Industrial. Based on the current situation, the dissertation proposes an industrial adjustment policy program and emulates the effectiveness of the program. While the industrial structure adjustment is carried on, it suggests that some respects should be taken into consideration, that are includes controlling population, strengthening investment in tertiary Industrial and emphasizing the role of Industrial policy guidance in technology, education and eco-friendly investment. According to these efforts, it sets up an optimum path model in industrial structure adjustment and ultimately calculated the optimum path in Heilongjiang. Finally, it puts forward the strategy of industrial structure adjustment in Heilongjiang from the respects of Industrial self-development and Industrial policy. It stressed on the combination of Industrial policy and market adjustment mechanism, giving full play to the role of market adjustment and Industrial policy guidance. To achieve the goal of health and rapid growth, we must pay attention to optimizing internal structure in three industries and improving the overall quality in three industries.This dissertation adopted a qualitative-and-quantitative combining analysis method so as to provide the evidence in industrial structure adjustment and to try to avoid errors in policy making, which will boost economy in a better way. The simulation model of industrial structure based on system dynamics can simulate dynamic change of industrial structure adjustment of three industries, serving as a policy laboratory in industrial structure adjustment.