Research On Chinese Labor Market's Supply And Demand

Since the reform and opening Chinese economy and society had a series of profound changes. The most important thing is establishing a socialist market economic system, and the labor market is an important part of this system. The supply and demand of Chinese labor market is the most basic relations impacting on economic development of many aspects, and it is also an important segment connecting population and economic development. Therefore, the study of the labor market and its supply and demand change is very important.This paper studies on the labor market of China, including its development, current situation and future direction. Based on the population and labor quantity fluctuation, the paper analyzes the changes and structural characteristics of the labor market's supply and demand. Then this paper analyzes the related factors which influence the labor market's supply and demand, and the supply and demand's impact on economic development. In order to adjust the balance of Chinese labor market's supply and demand, and promote economic development, this paper further carried out a series of countermeasures.Since the reform and opening the recovery and development of the labor market is broadly divided into three stages: In the first stage (1978-1991), the labor market was produced out of the planned economy system, and the demand of the labor market is limited to various types of collective and private economic enterprises and sectors. In the second stage (1992-1997), the labor market was officially recognized by the Government, the labor required for non-state economy can only be resolved through the recruitment in the labor market. In the third stage (1998- ), the labor market'construction was in full swing, and gradually formed an urban and rural labor market service network, which is based on nonprofit employment agency with private vocational agencies for added. At present, China's labor market has already become the main labor resources allocation ways and channels. However, the labor market segmentation still exists, reducing allocation efficiency of the labor market. Therefore, to establish a unified and efficient labor market is the development direction of China's labor market.Chinese population growth rate began to decline after 1990. The working-age population in 2015 and the total population in 2030 will get their peak one after another. After that the working-age population and the fotal population will decline respectively. However, due to the urbanization development, the urban population will remain constant growth with growth rate slowing down gradually by mid-century, and the growth of total population will exceed working-age population after 2015, which will increase labor burden progressively. By calculating town future labor force use of labor participation rate and demographic data, and projecting new urban employment demand use of employment elasticity and GDP growth rate, we can draw the following conclusions: If the economy can keep grow steadily in China, the new urban employment demand annually will increase from the current more than 10 million to more than 12 million in 2015, and to more than 14 million in 2020. The corresponding new urban increasing workforce annually will get down from more than 8 million in 2010 to more than 6 million in 2020 gradually. The gap between the two expanded from 2 million to 8 million gradually.The changes of total population and working age population affect the labor market, causing supply change of the labor market. Economic development mainly decides demand change of the labor market. Under the action of population changes, economic development and other social factors, the ratio of employment needs and job seekers in Chinese labor market is rising continuously, from 0.6 in 2001 to 1 or so now, which shows the situation of supply more than demand in the labor market has been improved gradually. In the first quarter of 2010 the ratio of employment needs and job seekers in Chinese labor market gets 1.04, and after that maintains around 1, which indicates the labor market in the basic balance between supply and demand. The demand of many ordinary workers becomes even more than the number of job seekers, and structural shortages in the labor market appear and continue to expand. If the existing mode of economic development continues to maintain, structural shortages of the labor market will continue, and may be expanded to the overall labor market supply shortage after 2015.Changes of the supply and demand in labor market drive force to economic development mode shift, promoting the adjustment and upgrading of the industrial structure. Industrial development is generally from labor-intensive industries at beginning, with the development advantage of abundance cheap labor resources. When a structural shortage of labor markets appears and labor shortages are mainly ordinary workers, the labor wages will generally increase, causing business'costs rising too. At this moment, enterprises can seek other abundant low-cost labor resources region, continues to develop according to the original model. Or enterprises can improve, transform or upgrade their technology, in order to save labor's demand and realize transformation from labor-intensive industries to capital-intensive or technology-intensive industries. No matter choosing which way enterprises can promote the whole area's industrial structure adjustment and upgrading. The adjustment and upgrade of industrial structure is the key in China's economic development mode change.In the long run changes of supply and demand in the labor market are inner motivation of economic development mode changing. But, within a certain time or a certain area, the structural shortage of the labor market will continue to impact on economic development. In order to reduce this impact to the minimum degree, we must take comprehensive measures. First we should speed up the industrial structure adjustment and upgrading, promote the regional economic development coordinated. Second we should adjust the human resource training objectives, to adapt to the need of economic and social development. Third we should eliminate various system obstacles, and promote the labor flow freely. Fourth we should establish a nationwide unified labor market, reducing both search parts'cost of supply and demand. Only by adjusting the industrial structure, training human resources, eliminating the institutional barriers, and constructing labor market, we can adjust supply and demand of the labor market, so as to balance supply and demand of the labor market and to promote the economic and social development.