Grain Security In China:Cost And Price Aspects

The Chinese government attaches much importance to safeguard national food security as a strategic work, because of its necessary and relation on the national economy and the people's livelihood. Food security is the important content in Central1st documents that is continually issued for six years since2004. At present the possibility of famine is extremely to be small, our grain production basically meet domestic total demand, moreover also we could adjust the surplus and deficiency using the globalization grain market, so the instable grain production and price frequent undulation more and more became the primary factor influencing grain market security.This paper is based on the agricultural subsidy investigation, the grain industry chain tracking data from production to management,217stochastic sample farmers as well as the national agricultural product cost absorbing and benefit and so on State statistical bureau monthly data by using the statistical analysis and the VEC equation, which understood the grain producer and manager Cost-benefit situation and estimated what extent enhanced the grain price to the overall price level influence. The research conclusion is as follows:The grain cost of presents the undulating trend of escalation along with the economic periodic change and the primary reason is that basic raw materials of agricultural capital such as labor force, cultivated land as well as energy are cut down unceasingly and long-term slight inflation policy propels the rise of nominal grain cost. As to links in the production chain, according to correlative analysis on the questionnaire and the significance level test, it is found that the more subsidy the peasants obtain, the less the grain area reduces, but the grain area does not expands along with the increase of the subsidy. The grain subsidy results in the decrease of grain production cost of around5cent per jin, but the subsidy policy produces little effect on decrease of the cost. As to links in management and circulation, the paddy purchase expense and the rice selling price of processing enterprise is going up to varying degrees in the process of sales from the host production area to Beijing and the more cost of operation leads to a slight drop of the after-tax profits. Therefore, we should eliminate the barrier in the links in grain production, management and circulation and to ensure the income of circulation main body can stabilize the domestic grain production, ensure the prompt smooth supply to grain market and maintain the stabilization of grain price. To raise the grain price by a big margin can increase the income of the peasants fundamentally and raise their confidence to plant grains enormously. Estimated by using the VEC model, to raise the grain price moderately would not promote the rise of CPI seriously and as far as the current situation is concerned there will be a rise in price of20%at least.Finally, from what has been discussed above, considering our country actual situation we may reasonably suggest to reduce the grain cost of production and management and enhance the related main body benefit.