Study On Methods And Models Of Generation Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty

Being an important basic industry of national economy, Electricity is playing a key supportive in a country's socio-economic development and the national civil living standard. As the economic and social environment changes, the pattern of the traditional monopoly of the power industry cannot meet the latest requirement of recent development. Thus, breaking the monopoly and introducing competition has become the universal appeal of the world's electricity reform.Power generating area is the earliest one to introduce and conduct competition model. Compared to the traditional control system in the electricity market, the investment strategy and operating model of this generation companies are different in aspacts of realation between generation, transmission planning and incentive method, etc. These are because of the effectiveness of more uncertainties and randomnesses. In order to disscuss on rational allocation and efficent usage of resources, this paper will focus on researching, modeling and senario planning in decision making strategy about the power generation technologies, investment window of opportunity and generation exanding under uncertainties including environment, opportunities and strcture of investment. These discussion are committed to promote the coordinated development of the industry related to society,economy environment and meanwhile the investment efficeicy. The discussion is mainly composed of three parts introduced below.Firstly, this paper will study the theoretical basis of the power generation investment decisions under uncertainties, compare the different investment decisions, investigate the uncertainties of power generation investment decisions. It will futher point out the difference of the power generation investment decisions between before and after the market-oriented reform, and analyze the decisions under different market regulation.Secondly, this paper will research and model the selection of the generation technologies under uncertainties. The main contents include the study on Economic models based on real option theory of irreversible investment, the research on the enfluence by the price of eletricity on fossil fuels'price and the investment decision making, and analyze on the mutual relations between different energy pieces.Thirdly, this paper will research and model the best investment opportunity decision. A more accurate real option model considering the jump and spike of generation capacity will be built based on the basic principles of maximizing the investment income and the expansion of spark spread model. Based on the power price model with jump, a options valuation model will also be proposed. Futhermore, The sensitivity of power generation assets assessment will be analyzed to reflect the features of power price. Moreover, it will introduce the evaluation of different investment opportunities, and conclude the significance of generation assets'value and investment timing.Finally, this paper will research and model for the investment decision-making of power generation expansion under uncertainties. Combining with the uncertainty and the competitors'future expectations of investment, the article introduces the analysis framework for expansion of investment decisions under uncertainty conditions—making associated model of the assessment of the thermal power equipment before the investment evaluation, identifying individual investment projects based on the full life-cycle cost, determining the most suitable and continuous load curve step function with the method of dynamic programming to provide references for the investment decision of power generation expansion and building investment evaluation model and taking full account of the competitors'future expansion program and the uncertainties of fuel costs variation in the future. Moreover, this paper will determine the investment value of the power generation technology establish the expansion schedule of the system under different load growth and research the impact of different load growth rate on investment projects by the example analysis.